On Wednesday, April 2, 2003 at 17:19:54 (-0500) Max B. Sawicky writes:
>I know the failure rate is high.
>But a person could fail more than once
>and still make it eventually. The real
>issue I think is mobility. We know there's
>a lot of immobility. Make it numbingly simple.
>Suppose you have a 90 percent chance of getting
>nowhere, and a 10 percent chance of getting
>somewhere. Somewhere in the ether is the chance
>that joining the revolution will get you somewhere.
>
>All I'm saying is that discounting the 10 percent
>chance out of hand is nuts, assuming you would
>like to appeal to intelligent persons.
>
>This oversight I think is one of the fatal flaws of
>socialism, broadly speaking.
Socialism, or perhaps better, deep social concern for other values
besides greed, doesn't necessarily mean all-or-nothing, all-at-once.
It could offer the (short-term) choice of:
1) 90% chance of getting nowhere, 10% chance of getting rich, along
with increased poverty for others, failing public schools,
polluted air and water, health care for the few, etc.
2) 59% chance of getting 20% better, 40% chance of staying where
you are, 1% chance of getting rich, along with guaranteed health
care, parks, clean air, participation in the workplace, just
laws, fair cops, free education for all, etc.
It would be interesting to formulate these proposals and put them
to the test, Tversky-style to see if there is preference reversal,
halo effects, whatnot. Fun and exciting for the whole family.
Bill
