>if so, we agree.

I cannot think of anytime I disagreed with you. The more I think about this,
the more I think I disagree only with the people I disagree with, but, one
always has to keep that critical inquiry going and not tule out the
possibility you might disagree.

>It's also extremely hard to disprove (or "falsify") a proposition
empirically. Most propositions have "ceteris paribus" clauses which can be
invoked to defend the prop.

This is true, which is another reason why Benjamin Disraeli referred to
"lies, damn lies and statistics". However, statistics are indispensable to
place the problem in proportion, and even it is not possible to conclusively
prove or disprove a theorem, it is often possible to prove a margin of
error, i.e. the limits within which quantitative variation can occur. This
is an important corrective to rootless theorising which attaches enormous
importance to something which, in the wider scheme of things, really just
isn't so important.

>For example, in macro, empirical evidence has seemingly destroyed the
"monetarist" proposition that rapid increases in the money supply always &
everywhere cause inflation (since it turns out that "velocity" is unstable
and the relevant money supply changes over time, often in an
endogenously-driven way). But there are some people who honestly continue to
defend this proposition. (They may be honest despite their politic
positions, which are bad in my perspective.)

Yes, and Imre Lakatos explains why that is the case (showing also that
Popper's idea of "crucial experiments" is strictly speaking false or at any
rate must be relativised). When I was a university, I have a friend and he
wrote a paper on this, applying the Lakatosian interpretation to the history
of economic thought, with a Marxian interpretation of the objective
conditions within which theorising took place. My own interest as Education
student at that time, was in "historical learning", i.e. from the same
historical experience different people can conclude different things
depending on the theories they use to interpret the experience. You have
these historical learning processes and you can say at any time that in
relation to a specific event, people of a particular generation drew a
particular conclusion, maybe influence by their social station in life, but
that conclusion was drawn, and that remains in memory as a basis for present
and future evaluations or orientations.

This is actually a specific problem in Marxian-type political theory,
because we try to get people to draw specific lessons from real historical
experience rationally understood, and not bother with false prophets or
detractors and so on. Another application might be in regard to the fact,
that the PNAC-type people drew particular conclusions from the experience
they had in the past, and this shaped their policies, their thinking, and
that experience also defines the dynamic of their thinking.

Jurriaan

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