It made the Chicago papers too; I can't remember now, but I think there
was a brief story on it in the Bloomington Pantagraph. GM & Ford are big
news reverberate outside the City of Eddie Guest. :-)

Carrol


^^^^^
CB: Well GM is only about the third largest company in the world now. I
wonder if what's good for General Motors is still good for America.

Way back in the thirties it was Alfred P. Sloan ( I think) who said GM is in
the business of making money ,not cars. Nice slogan for the merger of
industrial and finance capital as Finance Capital.



Alfred P. Sloan - encyclopedia article about Alfred P. Sloan. Free
...encyclopedia article about Alfred P. Sloan. Alfred P. Sloan explanation.
... Alfred P. Sloan. Word: Word. ...
encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Alfred%20P.%20Sloan -

 Alfred P. Sloan. 1875-1966. ... Alfred P. Sloan Foundation "Too often we
fail to recognize. and pay tribute to the. creative spirit.". -Alfred P.
Sloan, Jr. ...
www.virtualology.com/virtualpubliclibrary/
halloffounders/automotivefounders/ALFREDPSLOAN.COM/ - 22k - Cached - Similar
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Alfred P. Sloan, Late Chairman of General Motors Corporation... The reason
is that I have a famous relative, or at least my father and grandfather
believed that he was our relative, namely Alfred P. Sloan. ...
www.ishipress.com/al-sloan.htm - 7k - Cached - Similar pages


Alfred P. Sloan Museum in Flint, MI - Details | MuseumStuff.comAlfred P.
Sloan Museum details page from MuseumStuff.com, the web's leading guide to
1000's of museums worldwide. ... Alfred P. Sloan Museum. ...
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pages





^^^^^^


High anxiety for U.S. automakers


Big summer sales needed; suppliers, analysts fret


July 23, 2004

BY JEFFREY MCCRACKEN
FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER

About 60 degrees and six months ago, during the Detroit auto show, there was
a feeling of hope and optimism that an improving economy and slew of new and
redesigned vehicles -- Chevrolet Corvette, Ford minivan, Chrysler 300 sedan
-- would combine to increase Detroit automakers' sales while slowing down
the rebates and incentives that wreak havoc on profits.

Now, just past the year's halfway point, as second-quarter financial results
pour out from General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and the area's largest
auto suppliers, a new feeling is in the air: uncertainty. Or nervousness. Or
concern.

Whatever word is used to capture it, there is a definite sense that the
second half of the year needs to go better than the first for Detroit's auto
industry. Already, some are warning it won't.

A number of Detroit's largest auto-parts makers -- such as Delphi Corp. and
Visteon Corp. -- have told Wall Street they won't make as much as predicted
in the third quarter or have given less-than-rosy projections for the rest
of 2004. GM, too, gave the investors and analysts that cover them a cautious
view of the year.

"I think the real fear among these auto executives is that they only can get
better auto sales with huge incentives. The automakers, like GM, misplaced
their bets that better employment and a better economy would eliminate the
need for these rebates and low-interest deals, and that hasn't been the
case," said Diane Swonk, chief economist for Bank One Corp.

There is concern that if July and August aren't blockbuster sales months for
Detroit's three automakers -- especially GM -- they will have to slam on the
brakes of vehicle production, which would cause a ripple effect across the
industry and might push small suppliers into bankruptcy.

The big fear: GM will need to idle some plants in the fourth quarter, and
other automakers will follow suit. Already, GM's and Ford's plans for how
many cars and trucks they will build from July through September are lower
than they were last year by about 76,000 vehicles.

Ford's third-quarter production plan calls for it to build 755,000 cars and
trucks, the lowest third-quarter number in the automaker's history. GM's
third-quarter production of 1.2 million vehicles is the lowest it has been
since the 1990s and down about 4 percent from a year ago.

GM and Ford will announce their production plans for the rest of the year
Sept. 1, making that an important day in the immediate future of many
Detroit suppliers.

"There are quite a few suppliers around town that are watching to see what
happens because they are so dependent on GM and the domestics. If GM decides
to pull back a lot, that will send a message to the whole industry and have
some scary ripples for some local suppliers," said Jeff Schuster, executive
director of vehicle forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates, the market
analysis firm.

"Really, what Detroit needs is just a big, big sales month in July and
August from the traditional Big Three."

Schuster's firm recently lowered its production expectation for the rest of
the year by about 100,000 cars and trucks. Schuster called that just a minor
tweak. But noted it would have been lower, except foreign automakers like
Toyota are "looking to increase production this year."

GM refused to tip its hand during a conference call Wednesday with financial
analysts and reporters, saying only that it would stick with its current
plans for the third quarter and push hard in July and August to increase
sales, especially those of trucks. "We will have a strong emphasis on trucks
in the summer," said John Devine, GM's chief financial officer. "Our share
of the light-truck market is a disappointment. We have some expectation we
can increase that, but it remains to be seen." Devine and other GM officials
emphasized overall auto sales for July are off to a strong start but
wouldn't give details or say whether GM's share was growing. Forcing GM's
and Ford's hands is an excess of unsold vehicles. GM and Ford have a
sky-high glut of inventory between them: more than 2.2 million unsold car
and trucks. Chrysler Group inventories are in good shape, and the automaker
doesn't report its second-quarter results until next week. Auto suppliers
around Detroit are worried about the second half of the year for more
reasons than just production cuts, said lawyers, consultants and others that
advise the companies. "Suppliers are really worried about their profits when
they see production cuts coming while their health-care costs go up 15
percent and their steel goes up maybe 25 percent," said Craig Fitzgerald, a
supplier consultant and partner at Plante & Moran, a Southfield-based
consulting firm. "I've got one client who has very good profit margins
usually, and he tells me the next six months look really bad. His release,
new orders, from the automakers are way down."

Fitzgerald estimated 25 percent of small-to-medium-size suppliers locally
are bordering on bankruptcy. He said if GM took a big production cut in the
fourth quarter -- such as the 20-percent cut some wall Street analysts
predict -- it would force some suppliers to go under.

"These small suppliers, like with $50 million or $100 million in sales,
would probably throw up their arms and say it's not worth hanging around,"
he said.

But some suppliers remain optimistic --at least for the next few months.

Tom Martin, vice president and chief financial officer at American Axle,
said: "GM today is very bullish on the second half of the year. They feel as
we feel: They are going to handle the inventory they have sitting out there.
There isn't anything in the schedule that shows cutting back on the 2005
models."

The auto industry stands out as one of the few industries that is anxious
and forecasting some uncertainty amid an otherwise solid U.S. economy, said
economist Swonk. She noted that during the recession of 2001 and 2002,
automaker sales held strong and even grew while other industries struggled.

Now, as industries like aerospace, heavy truck, freight and even travel all
pick up or thrive, automakers are going in the other direction, Swonk said.
She said at a time automakers need $5,000 cash rebates to sell a truck,
hotels and airlines can finally price their products better.

"Most industries and CEOs are optimistic, while the auto execs are
scratching their heads and acting nervously," she said. "The auto industry
got over the hump faster than other industries and defied gravity during a
recession. Now, gravity has caught up to them, and they've fallen back to
Earth."

Contact JEFFREY McCRACKEN at 313-222-8763 or [EMAIL PROTECTED]

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