My suspicion is that in the short run one has an easier time identifying
effect after the fact, although predicting the outcome is virtually
impossible. I also suspect that we are talking past each other.
On Sat, May 10, 2008 at 07:23:33PM -0400, Doug Henwood wrote:
> 08 16:24:14 -0700
> X-Spam-Status: NO, hits=-2.60 required=5.00
> Status: O
> X-Status:X-Keywords: X-UID: 3106
>
>
> On May 10, 2008, at 7:11 PM, Michael Perelman wrote:
>>
>> I do not understand the question. I was responding to the quotation that
>> said that negative effects could happen in the short run. For example,
>> technological change in China reportedly is reducing employment rapidly,
>> which is masked by export employment. I think that the short run effect
>> can go either way.
>>
>> All I was trying to say was that identifying long run relationships can be
>> difficult.
>
> And apparently it can be difficult to identify short-term ones too.
> ________________
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929
Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
michaelperelman.wordpress.com
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