From: Carrol Cox 



Doug Henwood wrote:



I would include among those matters which "We simply do not know" the
rise of mass popular movements (such as the civil-rights movement. 
^^^^
CB: The problem with this is that there were civil rights activist in
the decades before "the" civil rights movement took off in the fifties -
W.E.B. Dubois, Paul Robeson, Benjamin Davis, Rosa Parks, The Civil
Rights Congress, The National Negro Labor Council, even the organizing
of the UAW, etc. .  These activists had optimism of the will, and some
sober assessment of the intellect that a civil rights movement that
there was some probability that a movement would take off. So, it is not
accurate to say nobody "knew" at all, that it was absolutely uncertain
in advance. Maybe you didn't know, and a lot of other people didn't
know. But some people had some knowledge that it would. They knew there
was a possibility that it would happen, that's why they were organizing.
Rosa Parks didn't just "happen" to sit up front one day. There is some
information that she was a local Communist Party member, like the
deacons who were the  backbone of the Party in Alabama. The movement was
not utterly unpredictable for some certain people, cp.

The ANC slogan - "the struggle continues;victory is certain " - is
interesting in this context.

^^

They
are utterly unpredictable, which is why we must always act as though
one
is about to burst upon us in the next five years. It is because
various
left individuals & grouplets so act that, when such a mass movement
arises, the experienced local cadre are available. This means that
whole
generations of leftists must 'waste' their entire lives preparing for
occasions which are in Keynes's terminology "uncertain."
 ^^^^
CB; Actually , I agree with your conclusion that we must be always
ready, prepared, like boy scouts. But, it should be with some sense that
it is possible, it is not completely unknown. This is also for the
morale of the cadre. Otherwise, we ask them to adopt a religious,
faithful mentality.  There is a possibility of change based on real
evidence, not blind faith in revolution.

^^^^

Doug has called this fatalism, if I understand him, but it is no more
fatalist than Keynes.

Carrol

^^^^^
CB: It is a sort of blind faith. As materialists we should be pushing
reasoned faith or reasoned optimism.




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