On Sat, Sep 20, 2008 at 10:40 AM, Julio Huato <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Not unlikely, but not necessarily either. Because there's this
> self-fulling prophecy thing. If, indeed, the financials collapse and
> they drag down the entire economy, then indeed those assets (say,
> mortgages) are garbage, because the economy will not help people
> service them. On the other hand, if the financials are rescued
> (regulated and monitored in their future dealings), then the economy
> may improve and help people service their obligations, thus making
> those assets more valuable than currently deemed, which may even turn
> out a profit to the taxman.
>
> Can somebody please measure all this stuff and straighten things out
> for me? Thanks.

The writer has a good point in the above. The value of these mortgage
assets are indeed self-fulfilling to an extent. If the bailout works,
those assets will indeed be worth more than if it doesn't. Which
raises an apparently paradoxical possibility: the bigger the bailout
check the Treasury writes, the *smaller* the ultimate losses may well
turn out to be.

But a profit to the taxman is utterly improbable. It is more a
question of controlling the losses.

I suspect that this same self-fulfilling nature makes it difficult to
measure this stuff properly at this time.


> [*] Paulson said yesterday that, aside from those toxic assets, "our"
> (speak for yourself, man) financial firms are otherwise "financially
> sound." How do we assess the financial soundness of a firm but by
> looking at the predominant assets in their balance sheets? That's like
> saying that, aside from a person being lazy, duplicitous, and
> cowardly, his character is otherwise sound. But I digress.

Maybe he is putting lipstick on the pig..

-raghu.

-- 
"I have a heart of a child... in a jar on my desk." - Stephen King
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