On Oct 22, 2008, at 9:17 AM, Jim Devine wrote:
that's a clearer statement than the one I borrowed from ravi.
Well, I thought "we are at max production" made it clear that the
argument is not that "we are running out of oil". Though of course
insofar as oil is not getting regenerated at a pace equivalent to
consumption, the latter is a simple truism. I think those who argue
against "peak oil" (the first idea: max production) or
"sustainability" (the idea that consumption has limits) are usually
arguing not against these ideas, especially "sustainability", but
rather the more reasonable idea (though still incorrect, empirically,
IMHO) that consumption patterns will change before such crises occur.
But it's
possible that we could see "three barrels of oil to extract two
barrels of oil" due to inefficiency, not the inability to recover oil.
True, but perhaps the argument is that we are reaching or have reached
peak efficiency.
On Oct 21, 2008, at 5:13 PM, Jim Devine wrote:
ravi wrote:
For a reality check: oil prices may be going down, but they are
nowhere near
what they were in say 2001 when oil was about $25/barrel. I believe
the
"peak oil" theory says that we are at max production, yes? The
current drop
in price is attributed to lower than expected demand, and perhaps
also
profit-taking? So the drop in prices need not refute "peak oil".
I didn't say anything about refutation.
No, you certainly did not (and my response on the thread had no
attribution). I was commenting on the range of criticism on peak oil
especially in light of the recent price drop.
BTW, if the current drop is explained by lower-than-expected demand
and profit-taking, we can just as validly explain the previous peak
prices by higher-than-expected demand and profit-seeking speculation.
Both fit well with inelastic supply in the short run. Neither says
anything automatic about the long-run presumption that we are at "max
production." (Does "max production" include Cuba's oil fields? or no?)
Yes, I agree that the uptick in prices could have been (and I suspect
was indeed in large part due to) speculation. Again, I am no "peak
oil" expert (I only agree with the basic premise that there is a limit
to efficiency and that if we consume a finite resource faster than it
can be replenished, we will run out of it), but to give them their
due, I do not think the peak oil argument relied heavily on the recent
price increase. No?
--ravi
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