I wrote:

> I obviously meant:

Jim wrote:

> why "obviously"? Obama wants to
> intensify the war in Afghanistan,
> after all. And a lot of the wars
> that the US has been involved in
> or started have occurred under
> Democratic Party presidents (Korean
> war, Vietnam War, invasion of the
> Dominican Republic, the war on
> Serbia, etc.) The current Bush
> has been trying to help the GOP's
> record, but it used to be that the
> DP was seen as the party of war.

I obviously meant to say decrease X, increase Y -- rather than
increase both X and Y.

I didn't mean to say that it is obvious that, with Obama, the danger
of war decreases.  Obviously, it is not obvious.  To notice this,
people need to estimate risks -- like Fidel implicitly did in order to
draw his conclusion (conclusion with which I entirely agree).
Obviously, those estimates will differ with the assumptions you are
willing to make.

I am an anti-imperialist, as a matter of principle.  But not every
imperialist attack has a similar valuation in my risk calculus.  To
me, waging a war against Al Qaida terrorists and their Taliban
supporters on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border does not have the same
weight as an aggression that may subvert the ongoing revolutions in
Cuba, Venezuela, Ecuador, or Bolivia.  One other thing: I don't think
that the past performance of the DP is guarantee of future imperialist
returns.  In fluid times as those of the late 20th and early 21st
centuries, even old political formations like the Republican and
Democratic parties evolve.  (Yes, they remain instruments of the
capitalist class, but there's still a range of possibilities in
there.)

That said, I admit I'm only talking probabilities here.  Just like you
are, even though you seem much more certain than me.

Carrol wrote:

> I will be pleasantly surprised if he
> does _anything_ at all about u.s.
> systematic use of torture.

We will all be.  But I don't understand why you make so much (or so
little) hinge on Obama's as an individual, as if it were all just up
to him, as opposed to make it depend on broader political conditions
in which you personally may make a significant difference.
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