Doug Henwood < ? There is no requirement that GDP fall in any number of quarters for a recession to be declared. The "two consecutive quarters of decline" metric is popular, but it has no official status. The official def:
<http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html> "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. ^^^ CB: What's the number for "significant decline" ? ^^^ A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion." The BLS doesn't produce the GDP stats; it produces labor and price statistics, as its name suggests. GDP is calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The BLS started reporting declines in employment in January 2008. It's likely they've been underreporting - for technical, not sinister reasons - the decline in employment since last spring. ^^^ CB: How about for pro capitalist ideology propaganda reasons , as in recent note here that economics professions functions as propagandists for capitalism ? By not declaring a recession for so long, the masses don't have a bad impression of the capitalist economy for so long. if bad economic news is broadcast everyday, it tends to make more people think there is a systemic problem, makes them more open to alternative economic systems. The statisticians are like reporters of the journalist industry. The "editors" and "publishers" of the economics intellectual industry call the shots. ^^^^ Doug This message has been scanned for malware by SurfControl plc. www.surfcontrol.com _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
