An explanation of the NBER practices from former Clinton CEA guy Jeff Frankel.
http://content.ksg.harvard.edu/blog/jeff_frankels_weblog/2008/12/01/nber-eggheads-finally-proclaim-recession/ On Wed, Jan 14, 2009 at 12:46 PM, Charles Brown <[email protected]> wrote: > > Doug Henwood < ? > > There is no requirement that GDP fall in any number of quarters for a > recession to be declared. The "two consecutive quarters of decline" metric is > popular, but it has no official status. The official def: > > > <http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html> > > "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the > economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, > employment, real income, and other indicators. > > ^^^ > CB: What's the number for "significant decline" ? > > ^^^ > > A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when > the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an > expansion." > > The BLS doesn't produce the GDP stats; it produces labor and price > statistics, as its name suggests. GDP is calculated by the Bureau of Economic > Analysis. The BLS started reporting declines in employment in January 2008. > It's likely they've been underreporting - for technical, not sinister reasons > - the decline in employment since last spring. > > ^^^ > CB: How about for pro capitalist ideology propaganda reasons , as in recent > note here that economics professions functions as propagandists for > capitalism ? By not declaring a recession for so long, the masses don't have > a bad impression of the capitalist economy for so long. if bad economic news > is broadcast everyday, it tends to make more people think there is a systemic > problem, makes them more open to alternative economic systems. > > The statisticians are like reporters of the journalist industry. The > "editors" and "publishers" of the economics intellectual industry call the > shots. > > > ^^^^ > > > Doug > > > > > > > This message has been scanned for malware by SurfControl plc. > www.surfcontrol.com > _______________________________________________ > pen-l mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l > _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
