to test astrology's validity, I'll tell you all the details about my life (except my birthday and related) and you tell me when I was born.
On Fri, May 8, 2009 at 9:57 PM, Shane Mage <[email protected]> wrote: > > On May 9, 2009, at 12:35 AM, Sabri Oncu wrote: > > Shane: > > That astrology's theoretical structure finds no place among the theoretical > > structures of the "respectable" sciences in no way negates the fact > > that it is, in principle, scientific. Empirical testing could > > invalidate--or (perish the thought) confirm it. > > But then, there is the data issue: should it be time-series, > cross-sectional or panel (that is, time-series/cross-sectional)? > > If it is time-series or panel, what should be the observation > frequency: yearly, monthly, hourly, every other secondly or shorter or > way longer than yearly? > > If it is cross-sectional or panel, how large should be the > cross-section: five persons, 5,000 persons, 5,000,000 persons, the > entire human population currently alive and lived in the past? > > How about fitting a two-dimensional Fourier Series to an infinitely > long-infinitely broad data? > > The fit would be perfect, but would it explain or predict anything? > > Start with something much simpler. Take fifty matched pairs--one a lottery > winner, one a victim of a fatal automobile accident. Give birth > day/time/place and event day/time place for each to 200 professional > astrologers (sample size=10,000). Tell them to identify which was which in > each case. Test the percentage of correct identifications for statistical > significance. > > Shane Mage > > This cosmos did none of gods or men make, but it > > always was and is and shall be: an everlasting fire, > > kindling in measures and going out in measures." > > Herakleitos of Ephesos > > _______________________________________________ > pen-l mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l > > -- Jim Devine / "If heart-aches were commercials, we'd all be on TV." -- John Prine _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
