Max Sawicky wrote: > IMO we are on course for war with Iran regardless of who is elected (BHO or > GOP, that is). Once you say Iran absolutely cannot have nukes, and Iran is > committed to getting nukes, it's only a matter of time.
FWIW, Juan Cole (who I have found to be a reliable expert on things in the Middle East) does not think that Iran's leadership "is committed to getting nukes" at this time. According to the Ayatollahs, nukes are anti-Islamic. Instead, Cole argues, what Iran's leadership wants is the _option_ of having nukes in case the country is threatened militarily. If I remember correctly, Cole believes that the US military/intelligence elites know this. Going beyond Cole (as far as I've read his stuff), the push for war instead comes from the Israeli Likud leadership's wish to have to military supremacy in the Middle East (and the need for an enemy to justify geographic expansionism and to get back some of Israel's lost international prestige) along with the US government's willingness to give Israel (almost?) anything it wants. Given the fact that Iran's leadership -- like that of most countries -- doesn't like being pushed around, this push encounters resistance, making war more likely. Of course, the Iranian regime creates all sorts of good reasons for people outside that country to hate it (e.g., the grabbing of those three hikers awhile back). The major thing preventing war is the fact that Iran would be very hard to conquer, while any attack on it would increase popular support for the regime. I'm told (by an Iranian friend) that almost no-one outside of the state/religious establishment likes the Islamic Republic at this point, but that an attack by the US and/or Israel would make it quite popular for awhile. In some ways, the hard-liners in Israel and Iran feed each other: Iranian hatred of Israel justifies Israeli jingoism, which encourages Iranian hatred of Israel, etc. -- Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
