On Feb 26, 2015, at 2:57 PM, Louis Proyect <[email protected]> wrote:
> On 2/26/15 5:45 PM, Marv Gandall wrote:
>> That would clash with the expectations of the Greek masses and discredit
>> the European left for a generation.
>
> Talk about breaking down an open door.
>
> The main interest in Syriza has always been not what they would do as
> head of the state but as an alternative to the Leninist model of
> party-building. in some ways they are more effective out of office.
> Perhaps the most auspicious line of march would have been the creation
> of such parties all across Europe coordinating with each other to
> transform the EU, or to raise hell in a coordinated fashion to change
> the relationship of class forces.
Yes, and also, in retrospect, they might well have won the same level of
support from the Greek electorate by patiently campaigning while in opposition
for an “orderly” exit from the eurozone rather than exciting what are likely to
be false hopes that meaningful debt relief and social spending are possible
within it. The credible threat of an exit would have both given them more
bargaining power against that sector of the European ruling class which fears
Greece’s withdrawal would lead to crashing markets and the breakup of the
eurozone, and have possibly won the cooperation of the more confident sector
based in Germany which would like to expel Greece, on the assumption, rightly
or wrongly, that these knock-on effects could be avoided. As you know, because
I posted it to your list, the comments of this foreign exchange trader are a
pretty good reflection of the views of the bourgeois proponents of a negotiated
exit:
How would Grexit work?
By Matt Weller
Futures
February 20, 2015
[…]
• The real market fireworks could come if there is no chance of a deal
and the Eurogroup and co. make plans for a Grexit. Below are our thoughts on
how this could be managed and what to expect:
• The Eurogroup makes the announcement that Greece is going to leave
the Eurozone; we expect this announcement to come after the US market close
sometime after 2200 GMT on Friday.
• If this happens, then we would expect the Greeks to announce capital
controls on all their banks and announce a number of “bank holidays” early next
week, to try and manage the situation.
• Over the weekend we would expect a series of discussions between
Greece and the Eurozone and another statement before the markets open late on
Sunday evening.
• This statement could include a timeline for a “managed exit” from the
currency bloc including a timescale for re-introducing the drachma, how Greece
will pay back its debts (will they be written off?), how the Eurozone will
support the Greek economy, etc.
• A plan of economic support to help Greece manage this transition.
• The ECB is likely to step in to support Greek banks so that they do
not immediately collapse.
We believe that the Eurogroup and co. will want to manage this process in the
smoothest way possible to ensure that excess volatility does not hit the
financial markets and disrupt the Eurozone economy.
However, the consequences of a Grexit announcement in the coming days could
include:
• A sharp drop in the EUR, EUR/USD could fall below 1.10 and move back
towards parity.
• We could see Italian and Spanish bond yields move higher.
• A rush to safe havens like US Treasuries, UK Gilts, the yen and the
Swiss franc. It could also boost the USD, which is also considered a safe
haven, and could weigh heavily on risky assets like global stock markets.
• A sharp and devastating sell-off in Greek stocks and Greek bonds
(pushing bond yields through the roof).
• A sharp increase in the cost of Greek debt insurance.
• Protests on the streets in Greece (75% of Greek people wanted to
remain in the currency bloc when polled before Greece’s January elections.)
• Possible public protests in Germany if Greece’s debts are written off.
Full:http://www.futuresmag.com/2015/02/20/how-would-grexit-work
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