On 12/10/06, Paul <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
{There wasn't overwhelming interest :-) but I thought I would post this
Bush Alternative Option 1: Cheney and the like minded are urging "choosing
a winner" in the civil war which in practical terms today means the
Shias. They argue that this will be a short conflict [heard this before?]
without the further radicalization of Shia politics and that they can find
"moderate" Shia forces who will then govern [Chalabi ?!]. This would avoid
concessions to Iran (and Syria) and they hope this would produce "results"
before they leave office. This choice can not be too public or explicit
given the reaction in the Sunni world.
This wouldn't work because the most likely source of a genuine Iraqi
civil war would be Sadrists versus SCIRI, with the Sunni Resistance
siding with the Sadrists, and the secular, separatist Kurds trying to
cut deals with SCIRI. As for Shia on Shia civil war--it's the class
war mate!
Really much of the 'separate' choices can easily be conflated because
they are not ultimately what drives US policy in the ME and Iraq. They
are simply ways of re-stating how the US government might go about
getting what it wants, which is: large bases in Iraq and a pacified
population in what is or was Iraq, at least in the hinterland that is
supposed to support the bases--the South where all the easy-to-be-got
oil actually is. Which is why the ziocons in the administration very
quickly latched onto the 'historic' example of Japan, which to this
day has little independent foreign policy and hosts a massive US
military presence. Imagine a bourgeois Shia Arab Iraq with almost as
much oil to pump as Saudi Arabia in order to generate revenues that
would turn 1/3 of Iraq into another 'Gulf State' but one which would
embrace the US protection racket. No wonder CentCom packed up
everything from Florida, camp followers and all, and is squatting over
there! It's the DoD HOLY GRAIL! A country--or part of a country--that
is supposed to want its own occupation and has the means to pay for
it!
CJ
