"Worldwatch Institute observes that oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing countries.[43] Other countries have also passed their individual oil production peaks."
On 9/14/07, Michael Perelman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I don't mind controversy. That is not the issue. Peak oil is inevitable. > The > question is when. > > Look, the US will definitely go into a recession -- a big one. If the > economy goes > down this quarter that does not prove that the recession will occur within a > year. > > On Fri, Sep 14, 2007 at 06:11:33PM -0700, The Buffalo In Da' Midst wrote: > > > > "Heinberg says world production of regular crude oil actually peaked in > > May 2005. He also says production in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing > > countries is in decline, and that global oil discoveries peaked in 1964." > > > > > > You knew this?: > > > > "The world will produce 118 million barrels of oil a day, up from its > > current 85 million barrels per day, just to satisfy projected demand > > by 2030, according to the Energy Information Agency." > > > > > Yes, if the economy grows & technology stays the same. > -- This fellow appears to be saying that the increase production needed will not happen. So does the IEA: As of July of 2007, analysts (nb. of unspecified type/ lcm) still disagree on whether peak production capacity has been reached. [However] The IEA projects non-OPEC production estimates for 2007 and 2008 to remain largely unchanged from July 2007, at 50.0 mb/d and 51.0 mb/d, respectively. Growth is projected to recede thereafter as the slate of verifiable investment projects diminishes. [40] [Money quote:] " The concept of peak oil production and its timing are emotive subjects which raise intense debate. Much rests on the definition of which segment of global oil production is deemed to be at or approaching peak. Certainly our forecast suggests that the non-OPEC, conventional crude component of global production appears, for now, to have reached an effective plateau, rather than a peak. " [That plateau, according to many experts, is an *overhang*, due, if I remember correctly to manipulation of reserves. Past-peak.] The report points to only a small amount of supply growth from OPEC producers, with 70% of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Angola as security and investment issues continue to impinge on oil exports from Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela.[40] Further: In State of the World 2005, Worldwatch Institute observes that oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing countries.[43] Other countries have also passed their individual oil production peaks. I'd say ALL players in this game say we're past-peak oil and there are powerful financial/business interests that don't want anyone to publicize it, and would slap down *any* economist who hopes to remain fed/housed/employed, or else they smear the person, as I've seen happen on this list regarding this particular topic (survivalists!), or in other instances regarding an academic's employment or tenure because of their beliefs about Israel legitimate/illegitimate or 911. Leigh The wikipedia entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#Peak_oil_production.E2.80.94has_it_happened_already.3F
