kupasan menarik oleh NST ****** Catch-22 in Kelantan?
BARISAN Nasional has won only one by-election in Kelantan in the last 15 years. And for this reason alone, it is going to be the underdog in the face-off with Pas in Pengkalan Pasir on Dec 6. Underdog. Most people entering a fight would prefer this tag because being called an underdog, especially in what is expected to be a close battle, portrays the image of a disadvantaged little guy with nothing to lose. Hence, the pressure would be less and it would certainly be a lot easier to win sympathy. In the case of Pengkalan Pasir, Pas too would like to believe itself to be the underdog. And this is because it considers itself a minnow when it comes to the might and the well-oiled election machinery at the disposal of a Federal-backed BN. But it has to be remembered that Pas has ruled Kelantan for a total of 33 years since Independence, including three years in the BN and six years leading a coalition with Semangat 46. BN, on the other hand, only had a short hold on the reins - briefly from 1957 to 1959, and then for 13 years from 1977. It was in 1977 that Pas lost power, first through the suspension of its State Government and emergency power was handed over to the National Operations Council after a period of unrest. This was followed by its whitewash in the State election that followed in 1978. Essentially, when it comes to by-elections, BN has a great record nationwide. But not in Kelantan because, except for the slim 778-vote victory in Semerak through Kamaruddin Mohd Nor eight years ago, all the other results favoured Pas or parties linked to Pas. In 1991, when Pas and Semangat 46 were close allies in the Kelantan Government, two by-elections were held simultaneously in Sungai Pinang and Limbongan when Semangat 46 State assemblymen Nordin Salleh (Sungai Pinang) and Wan Mohd Najib Wan Mohd (Limbongan) were forced to vacate their seats after they decided to cross over to Umno. Nordin and Wan Najib were both fielded again, this time by BN, but they lost to their Semangat 46 opponents by almost 2,000-vote margins. This was followed by another by-election in 1995 for the Gua Musang parliamentary seat which saw Semangat 46 founder Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah trounce the then Umno information chief Datuk Hussein Ahmad by almost 5,000 votes. The by-election was called after the seat was declared null and void following an election petition filed by Hussein. In another by-election the following year for the Pulai Chondong state seat following the death of State executive council member Mohd Noor Ahmad of Pas, BN lost again when its candidate Yusoff Hamzah was beaten by Pas' Zulkifli Mamat. History therefore shows that BN will face an uphill battle in Pengkalan Pasir even though it came within a whisker of taking over the State Government from Pas in the general election last year. Of course, some sceptics would argue that, just as in sports, historical records count for nothing in elections. But in this case, at least it reflects on the psyche. That's what the neutrals will tell you, just as they would say that the people of Kelantan are very parochial when it comes to choosing their elected representatives. Not that there's nothing at all in BN or Umno that the local people can identify with, but rather Pas after all these years has a better foothold in the State. But then again, it could well be different this time around as a main challenge that could confront Pas now is its new image - whether its new lineup of young leaders and the phasing out of ulama as well as its softer approach in attracting the young is bearing fruit. This is in fact the first test for the new clutch of leaders who were elected at the party's muktamar (general assembly) four months ago and their new approach of winning over the younger generation with music concerts and celebrity football, activities previously frowned upon by the party. With Umno putting on a more serious face in the State, Pengkalan Pasir therefore can be a watershed of sorts for both BN and Pas. But whatever the outcome, it will still be too close for comfort for Pas in its equation against BN in the 45-seat State Legislative Assembly which, excluding Pengkalan Pasir, stands at 23-21 in Pas' favour. Looking back at what happened in 1977 when emergency rule was declared following unrest resulting from a falling out among local leaders that led to the formation of Pas-splinter party Berjasa, it could be a delicate situation for the ruling party if BN wins on Dec 6 and makes it 23-22. If that happens, it would be a Catch-22 situation for Pas - should it or shouldn't it dissolve the State Assembly and call for a fresh State election?//NST 20 Nov ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/ZP59lB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/perakan/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
