Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 14 June 2000
Indonesia's Military Grows Impatient with Wahid
Summary
Indonesia's armed forces are purging their ranks, removing generals
loyal to President Abdurrahman Wahid. The military has reasserted
itself, emphasizing its concerns about Indonesia's instability and
the threat of separatism. For the moment, the generals are still
behind Wahid, but he needs to resolve Indonesia's problems - or the
military will do it for him.
Analysis
After several months, Indonesia's military is re-emerging from the
shadows. On June 13, the head of Indonesia's armed forces (TNI),
Admiral Widodo Adisucipto, warned that the country was sliding
further into chaos and that the government's first concern was to
prevent the nation's disintegration. Widodo's statement typifies
the military's concern about Indonesia's territorial integrity and
its dissatisfaction with President Abdurrahman Wahid's efforts to
solve the problem. The armed forces are still backing Wahid - he is
still the best of a number of bad choices - but his options are
severely constrained if he wants to stay in power.
The military high command appears to be bracing itself in
preparation for a conflict with President Wahid. A TNI spokesman
told Antara news agency June 9 that a reshuffle of the top echelons
was in the works. Considering that Wahid has already inserted his
own loyalists into the top ranks, further reshuffling suggests that
the military wants to undo the damage. The process has already
begun; the Straits Times reported that Lt. Gen. Agus
Wirahadikusumah will lose his post as the chief of the army's
Strategic Reserve Command (Kostrad). Agus was installed on March 29
and is regarded as a close aide of Wahid and a vocal military
reformer.
This reshuffling comes on the heels of a series of very public
warnings from the armed forces. Since the middle of May, military
figures have continually expressed impatience about resolving the
economic turmoil, social instability and rampant separatism that is
tearing the archipelago nation apart. Hinting at solutions, the
army has begun referring to the People's Consultative Assembly
(MPR) as the highest power in the land - rather than the president.
Lt. Gen. Agus Widjojo, the chief of territorial affairs of the
Indonesian Defense Force, brought up the idea of continued, and
perhaps increased, military representation in the People's
Consultative Assembly - quite startling in light of the fact that
recent military reforms mandate the military withdraw from politics
by 2004. Most threatening were the General's references to the
"democratization failure" in Pakistan, and the military takeover
that rectified the problem, according to Agence France Presse.
This rhetoric represents a major shift from statements made as
recently as April 20, when military leaders emerged from their
annual meeting declaring their desire to stay out of politics. The
trigger for this change most likely occurred during the May 12
cease-fire agreement between the government and separatists in the
province of Aceh.
The cease-fire was a breakthrough in the decades-long conflict, but
it gave the rebels a hint of legitimacy. Most of the military
virulently opposes any accommodation of the separatists - seeing it
as encouragement for other separatists and the beginning of the end
of Indonesian unity. In fact, some observers blame the military for
a recent series of assassinations of the Acehnese leadership.
Another reason for this newfound assertiveness is that the armed
forces may have finally organized themselves after being
politically routed by Wahid early in his term. Not long after
taking office, the president brought in a number of new commanders
and reshuffled many of the old. He replaced the head of the armed
forces, a position traditionally held by the army, with an admiral
and directed resources toward the navy.
This exacerbated tensions between army officers - mostly those
loyal to ex-president Suharto - and the navy, which maintains an
institutional unity and outlook rooted in the populist nationalist
agenda of the late president Sukarno. But inter-service rivalries
appear to have taken a back seat to greater concerns about the
state of the nation.
The armed forces still back Wahid, more by default than by his own
virtues. The military has few favorable options. A military
takeover could stabilize Indonesia - after a period of massive
bloodshed and anarchy. The military would not only need to suppress
communal fighting in the Spice Islands and separatists in Aceh and
Irian Jaya, it would have to fight in the heart of Indonesia, as
student demonstrators and pro-democracy activists would inevitably
take to the streets. This would stretch the army to its limits,
with 250,000 regular troops trying to control a country of 200
million. In the meantime, the economy would collapse to near
subsistence levels as the last remaining foreign investors fled.
The alternative, however, is to sit and watch as Indonesia tears
itself apart. Wahid has been busy, but relatively ineffective in
negotiating an end to the violence and in encouraging foreign
investment. The rest of the government is consumed with political
infighting, which may be Wahid's salvation.
The military is not yet willing to take over the country, and there
is no other viable political figure to take Wahid's place. Military
intervention will be complete, or not at all. Thus, for the moment,
Wahid stays.
The armed forces have repeatedly stated that their first priority
is the national unity and territorial integrity of Indonesia.
Wahid's decision to use negotiations, rather than repression, to
reel in restive provinces threatens that unity - especially if that
negotiation amounts to de facto independence. The military's
patience is wearing thin, but it appears to have given Wahid one
last chance to fix the situation.
Wahid, however, is stuck. He cannot negotiate with the provinces
without offering them some form of independence or autonomy - which
is unacceptable to the military. Fixing Indonesia's economy will
quell some of the violence, but no companies will invest as long as
social unrest continues. Wahid made it a point not to send troops
against the separatists, but he now has little other choice. Soon
Wahid will bow to the military, allowing it to take control of the
provinces.
