Dear Cambridge philosophers of Science,

Tomorrow (Wednesday, today as most of you read this) is the fourth
meeting for CamPoS, which happens as usual at 1 p.m. in the HPS
department in seminar room 2 in the basement.  Melissa Fusco (Columbia 
University) will talk about 'Causal Decision Theory and Tragic Evidence: 
Death in Damascus Revisited'.

Her abstract is below.

Sincerely,
J. Brian Pitts

Abstract: Recent literature on causal decision theory (CDT) has featured 
much discussion of what Hare & Hedden call "decision dependence"---the 
fact that, for a causalist, the expected utility of an act a can 
sometimes depend on how confident one is that one will perform a.

In this talk, I will focus on decision dependent cases in which CDTers 
believe that they are subject to tragic evidential correlations 
(henceforth TECs).  According to the standard theory, the more confident 
a CDTer grows that she will perform a given act a in a TEC case, the 
more confident she becomes that she will regret doing a. Yet as Joyce 
(2012) puts it, in such cases the CDTer "[does] not...fully trust the 
accuracy of the future beliefs on which [her] regrets about [her act] 
will be based." This talk will be devoted to sketching the accuracy 
argument both in TEC cases and in their causal analogues.


-- 
J. Brian Pitts
Senior Research Associate
Faculty of Philosophy
University of Cambridge
jb...@cam.ac.uk

Ph.D., Philosophy/History & Philosophy of Science, University of Notre 
Dame
Ph.D., Physics, University of Texas at Austin


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