Polls to change face of Asia
By RALPH COSSA
HONOLULU -- Winston Churchill once said "democracy is the worst form of government,
except for all the others that have been tried." Recent elections in South Korea and
Taiwan have already demonstrated that irony. This year contains a number of
presidential and parliamentary elections that promise to change the political face of
Asia.
Taiwan: a too-close shave. The March 20 Taiwan election looked more like an Oliver
Stone movie, complete with an assassination attempt, an unusually high number of
invalid ballots and a margin of victory of less than one-quarter of 1 percent,
prompting calls for a recount, scheduled for May 10. Odds are high that the end result
will be the same: President Chen Shui-bian is expected to begin a second four-year
term on May 20.
While Chen's margin of victory was minuscule, the campaign still sent a strong message
to Beijing. The (falsely labeled) "pro-China" candidate, Lien Chen, took great pains
to distance himself from Beijing's "one China" concept, even playing down his own
earlier "one China, different interpretations" formulation. Taiwanese "identity"
issues are a growing phenomenon that Beijing must recognize and deal with effectively
if there is to be any future progress in cross-Strait relations.
All eyes will now be on Chen's May 20 swearing-in ceremony to see his approach toward
Beijing. Chen has already pledged to support the "status quo," although Chen's
definition of the status quo clearly differs from Beijing's, ensuring a tough four
years ahead unless Beijing decides on a more cooperative approach. Recall it was
concern that Chen might "make decisions unilaterally that change the status quo, which
we oppose" that lead to U.S. President George W. Bush's open criticism of Chen in
December.
Malaysia: Secularism wins big. Largely overshadowed by events in Taiwan were the March
21 Malaysian elections that provided a sweeping mandate for Prime Minister Abdullah
Ahmad Badawi. His Barisan National (BN) Party, won 90 percent of the seats in
Parliament and retained control over 12 of Malaysia's 13 state assemblies, dealing a
crushing blow to the fundamentalist Islamic opposition party, PAS. The prime minister
has surprised and delighted advocates of reform with his crackdown on corruption since
replacing the mercurial Mahathir last October. His deeply felt but moderate religious
views are in stark contrast to the increasingly confrontational PAS. The BN victory
firmly establishes the more secular model of governance instituted by Mahathir,
something Washington is sure to appreciate.
Indonesia: democracy coming of age? The parliamentary elections in Indonesia earlier
this month have set the stage for Indonesia's first direct presidential elections in
July. While 90 percent of the country is nominally Islamic, religious political
parties have never dominated national politics. The main battle this year is again
between secular-nationalist parties, with President Megawati Sukarnoputri of the
ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP); Gen. Wiranto, the surprise
winner of the Golkar nomination; and former Gen. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (the early
favorite) as the most serious contenders.
Wiranto's election would be particularly challenging, given that he is currently under
indictment for "crimes against humanity" over atrocities committed in East Timor
during his tenure as chief of the armed forces. The United States has wisely announced
that "we can work with anybody that comes out of a free [election] process."
South Korea: a new era dawns. The stunning victory of the upstart Uri Party in the
April 15 National Assembly elections changes the political landscape in South Korea
and increases the prospects that last month's impeachment of President Roh Moo Hyun
will be overturned. While inconceivable at the beginning of the year, Uri has now
become the majority party, giving Roh the foundation he has thus far lacked to pursue
his political agenda -- assuming, as almost everyone does, that the impeachment
charges do not stand.
The implications of all this for South Korea-U.S. and South-North relations are less
than clear, but most Uri Party members are considerably more sympathetic and tolerant
of North Korea than they appear to be toward Washington. Without the checks and
balances provided by a more conservative National Assembly, it is difficult to predict
in which direction Roh will choose to take either relationship.
Philippines: star power. Filipinos go to the polls on May 10 to select their next
president in a neck-and-neck race between the unelected incumbent, President Gloria
Macapagal Arroyo -- the former vice president who assumed office after then-President
Joseph Estrada was removed following "people power" demonstrations in 2001 -- and
Fernando Poe, a popular movie actor with no political experience.
While former economics professor Arroyo has not distinguished herself in the
management of the Philippines' rapidly sinking economy, turning things over to a
complete political novice can only make things worse. Meanwhile, Arroyo has named her
coalition after a Taiwan boy band and has a TV personality running as her vice
president, prompting one business leader to lament: "We have politicians who want to
be celebrities and celebrities who want to be politicians, and neither are doing a
good job in what they profess they want to be."
Japan: Iraq Redux? Finally, many are depicting the Upper House elections in Japan in
July as a vote of confidence on Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's controversial
decision to deploy the Self-Defense Forces to Iraq. Public opinion, initially running
strongly against Koizumi's decision, now seems more equally divided, but there is
concern that this upward trend could be reversed if the troops sustain significant
casualties. Spain's reaction to the March 11 terrorist attack against the nation's
rail system has raised concern that terrorist groups might attempt to make a similar
"statement" in Japan just prior to the elections.
Bush has stated it is U.S. policy to promote democracy everywhere. This brings to mind
yet another old saying: "Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it."
Ralph A. Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based nonprofit
research institute affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies
in Washington.
The Japan Times: April 28, 2004
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