Wiliam Pfaff: Give Iraqis complete sovereignty
William Pfaff IHT / TMSI Saturday, May 22, 2004
Getting out
PARIS The deep confusion that has fallen over the supposed transfer of power
in Iraq next month suggests that the best opportunity the United States will
ever have to make a constructive exit from that country may be wasted.
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Washington's notion that its military presence and continuing political
tutelage still can produce political stability and democracy in Iraq is no
longer credible. Neither the White House nor the Kerry campaign seems able
to admit that the American occupation itself creates instability and
provokes national resistance. This would seem self-evident.
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The isolated acts of violence with which the resistance began last year have
become organized attacks, accompanied by what, even before the prisoner
torture revelations, was becoming massive popular rejection of coalition
authority and anger at the United States. If the grant of sovereignty at the
end of June is not complete, or is postponed, the resistance will acquire
the legitimacy of a national and nationalist movement.
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An early and constructive withdrawal by the United States would be very
difficult, but may yet be possible. The key to getting out is transfer of
sovereign control. The United States has always maintained that this is its
intention, but with unstated reservations that must now be removed.
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Any American effort to hand over less than complete sovereign control will
provoke comprehensive resistance, including confrontation with the
mainstream Shiite community, led by the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
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If, on the other hand, the United States offers complete sovereignty and
American military withdrawal, a genuine, indeed enthusiastic, effort to make
the political and security transition work can be expected from the United
Nations and its agencies, and from the European allies - even those whom
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has disdained as former allies.
.
New possibilities will be opened, such as a national consultation of tribal,
religious and other established community and professional leaders in Iraq,
and a general international conference on providing a transitional
government with new means to reinforce its internal legitimacy and security.
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Iraq's neighbors are also likely to be cooperative, which they would not be
if the new Iraq is seen as an American satellite - and, inevitably, as a
consequence, an Israeli satellite.
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Before such an internationally managed and supported transition can be
contemplated, the Bush administration and the Pentagon must bite the bullet
and agree that the United States is not going to have a major strategic base
in Iraq.
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The White House also must give up the ideas that American corporate
investors are going to have a big role in Iraq's economy in the near future,
and that the United States will be able to influence oil prices through its
leverage over a new Iraqi government. If Washington has economic influence
in Iraq in the future, or enjoys its military cooperation, this will have to
be earned from a sovereign Iraqi government.
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The argument that a solution can be found in the partition of Iraq into
three entities - Shiite, Sunni and Kurd - making them independent or
grouping them in a loose political federation, has been offered by Leslie
Gelb, president-emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Peter W.
Galbraith, a former ambassador. This, it is said, could make it possible for
the United States to withdraw safely.
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The idea is irrelevant to the current urgency of the crisis, and is beyond
the power of the United States to accomplish unilaterally. It is also a bad
idea, as Carl Bildt, a former UN special envoy to the Balkans, has rightly
and powerfully argued. As he says, even to talk about it is to play with
fire. If attempted, partition could precipitate exactly the sectarian
violence, forced population transfers, foreign interventions and consequent
regional chaos that it is meant to prevent.
.
Two things are necessary. First, to set a deadline for U.S. military and
political withdrawal, and begin that withdrawal. The end of 2004 would be a
suitable date for its completion.
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Second, to request the United Nations to assume complete responsibility for
the formation of a sovereign Iraqi government, or for a process by which
such a government can be brought into being, and to assure the United
Nations and the other members of the Security Council of disinterested
American financial and political support for this undertaking.
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One could add a final piece of advice: to pray. The alternative to an early
and successful U.S. withdrawal is likely to prove terrible for all involved.
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Tribune Media Services International
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