Perlu pembentukan demokrasi dan reformasi yang sehat dalam membentuk 
partai partai rakyat yg memiliki aspirasi masing masing. Bisa dari 
aspirasi para pejuang. Pemerintahan Irak perlu memahami artinya 
Reformasi agar terbuka dan kebersamaan dgn rakyat Irak (pemerintahan 
Sehat). Artinya tidak boleh mengadopsi sistem rezim Saddam, 
kekekangan asing yang diartikan melarang hak hak rakyat dan 
mempersulitkan kebebasan rakyat dalam aspirasi. 

  Mana posisi lebih tinggi pemerintahan dari menteri Allawi atau 
Presiden? Bila memilih/menyukai asing daripada bekerja sama dgn Arab, 
dapat menunjukkan Pemerintahan Interm Irak tidak menyukai 
persaudaraan para tetangga? Semoga Pemerintahan Irak termasuk Menteri 
Allawi benar benar memperhatikan rakyat.

  Bagaimana besarnya dosa bila para atasan menyuruh pasukan memerangi 
rakyat Irak? atau dosa pada para pejuang yang memerangi? selama tidak 
memperduli solusi dan kerja sama. Ini akan dapat dipertanyakan di 
Akhirat utk memperhatikan penderitaan dan pertumpahdarahan rakyat 
Irak sendiri.

wassalam,

-------------------------------
Iraq Insurgency Far Larger Than Thought 

BAGHDAD, Iraq - The Iraq (news - web sites) insurgency is far larger 
than the 5,000 guerrillas previously thought to be at its core, U.S. 
military officials say, and it's being led by well-armed Iraqi Sunnis 
angry at being pushed from power alongside Saddam Hussein (news - web 
sites). 

Although U.S. military analysts disagree over the exact size, dozens 
of regional cells, often led by tribal sheiks and inspired by Sunni 
Muslim imams, can call upon part-time fighters to boost forces to as 
high as 20,000 � an estimate reflected in the insurgency's continued 
strength after U.S. forces killed as many as 4,000 in April alone. 

And some insurgents are highly specialized � one Baghdad cell, for 
instance, has two leaders, one assassin, and two groups of bomb-
makers. 

The developing intelligence picture of the insurgency contrasts with 
the commonly stated view in the Bush administration that the fighting 
is fueled by foreign warriors intent on creating an Islamic state. 

"We're not at the forefront of a jihadist war here," said a U.S. 
military official in Baghdad, speaking on condition of anonymity. 

The official and others told The Associated Press the guerrillas have 
enough popular support among nationalist Iraqis angered by the 
presence of U.S. troops that they cannot be militarily defeated. 

The military official, who has logged thousands of miles driving 
around Iraq to meet with insurgents or their representatives, said a 
skillful Iraqi government could co-opt some of the guerrillas and 
reconcile with the leaders instead of fighting them. 

"I generally like a lot of these guys," he said. "We know who the key 
people are in all the different cities, and generally how they 
operate. The problem is getting actionable information so you can 
either attack them, arrest them or engage them." 

Even as Iraqi leaders wrangle over the contentious issue of offering 
a broad amnesty to guerrilla fighters, the new Iraqi military and 
intelligence corps have begun gathering and sharing information on 
the insurgents with the U.S. military, providing a sharper picture of 
a complex insurgency. 

"Nobody knows about Iraqis and all the subtleties in culture, 
appearance, religion and so forth better than Iraqis themselves," 
said U.S. Army Lt. Col. Daniel Baggio, a military spokesman at 
Multinational Corps headquarters in Baghdad. "We're very optimistic 
about the Iraqis' use of their own human intelligence to help root 
out these insurgents." 

The intelligence boost has allowed American pilots to bomb suspected 
insurgent safe houses over the past two weeks, with Iraqi Prime 
Minister Iyad Allawi saying Iraqis supplied information for at least 
one of those airstrikes. But the better view of the insurgency also 
contradicts much of the popular wisdom about it. 

Estimates of the insurgents' manpower tend to be too low. Last week, 
a former coalition official said 4,000 to 5,000 Baathists form the 
core of the insurgency, with other attacks committed by a couple 
hundred supporters of Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and 
hundreds of other foreign fighters. 

Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq analyst with the Center for Strategic and 
International Studies, said the figure of 5,000 insurgents "was never 
more than a wag and is now clearly ridiculous." 

"Part-timers are difficult to count, but almost all insurgent 
movements depend on cadres that are part-time and that can blend back 
into the population," he said. 

U.S. military analysts disagree over the size of the insurgency, with 
estimates running as high as 20,000 fighters when part-timers are 
added. 

Ahmed Hashim, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said the 
higher numbers squared with his findings in a study of the insurgency 
completed in Iraq. 

One hint that the number is larger is the sheer volume of suspected 
insurgents � 22,000 � who have cycled through U.S.-run prisons. Most 
have been released. And in April alone, U.S. forces killed as many as 
4,000 people, the military official said, including Sunni insurgents 
and Shiite militiamen fighting under the banner of a radical cleric. 

There has been no letup in attacks. On Thursday, insurgents detonated 
a car bomb and then attacked a military headquarters in Samarra, a 
center of resistance 60 miles north of the capital, killing five U.S. 
soldiers and one Iraqi guardsman. 

Guerrilla leaders come from various corners of Saddam's Baath Party, 
including lawyers' groups, prominent families and especially from his 
Military Bureau, an internal security arm used to purge enemies. 
They've formed dozens of cells. 

U.S. military documents obtained by AP show a guerrilla band mounting 
attacks in Baghdad that consists of two leaders, four sub-leaders and 
30 members, broken down by activity. There is a pair of financiers, 
two cells of car bomb-builders, an assassin, separate teams launching 
mortar and rocket attacks, and others handling roadside bombs and 
ambushes. 

Most of the insurgents are fighting for a bigger role in a secular 
society, not a Taliban-like Islamic state, the military official 
said. Almost all the guerrillas are Iraqis, even those launching some 
of the devastating car bombings normally blamed on foreigners � 
usually al-Zarqawi. 

The official said many car bombings bore the "tradecraft" of Saddam's 
former secret police and were aimed at intimidating Iraq's new 
security services. 

Many in the U.S. intelligence community have been making similar 
points, but have encountered political opposition from the Bush 
administration, a State Department official in Washington said, also 
speaking on condition of anonymity. 

Civilian analysts generally agreed, saying U.S. and Iraqi officials 
have long overemphasized the roles of foreign fighters and Muslim 
extremists. 

Such positions support the Bush administration's view that the 
insurgency is linked to the war on terror. A closer examination 
paints most insurgents as secular Iraqis angry at the presence of 
U.S. and other foreign troops. 

"Too much U.S. analysis is fixated on terms like 'jihadist,' just as 
it almost mindlessly tries to tie everything to (Osama) bin Laden," 
Cordesman said. "Every public opinion poll in Iraq ... supports the 
nationalist character of what is happening." 

Many guerrillas are motivated by Islam in the same way religion 
motivates American soldiers, who also tend to pray more when they're 
at war, the U.S. military official said. 

He said he met Tuesday with four tribal sheiks from Ramadi who "made 
very clear" that they had no desire for an Islamic state, even though 
mosques are used as insurgent sanctuaries and funding centers. 

"'We're not a bunch of Talibans,'" he paraphrased the sheiks as 
saying. 

At the orders of Gen. John Abizaid, the U.S. commander of Mideast 
operations, Army analysts looked closely for evidence that Iraq's 
insurgency was adopting extreme Islamist goals, the official said. 
Analysts learned that ridding Iraq of U.S. troops was the motivator 
for most insurgents, not the formation of an Islamic state. 

The officer said Iraq's insurgents have a big advantage over 
guerrillas elsewhere: plenty of arms, money, and training. Iraq's 
lack of a national identity card system � and guerrillas' refusal to 
plan attacks by easily intercepted telephone calls � makes them 
difficult to track. 

"They have learned a great deal over the last year, and with far more 
continuity than the rotating U.S. forces and Iraqi security forces," 
Cordesman said of the guerrillas. "They have learned to react very 
quickly and in ways our sensors and standard tactics cannot easily 
deal with." 



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