Hao semua,
Diimpor dari milist tetangga dengan beberapa seleksi.Apakah ada yg
bisa membantu klarifikasi?
Saya jadi inget kasus LNG Tangguh dimana China yg menguasai he3..
Salam Damai,
George
Sebagaimana kita ketahui, harga minyak mentah dunia dalam
3-4 bulan terakhir ini telah melonjak naik, pertama mencapai
sekitar $44/barrel, dan saat ini hampir ca. $ 50/#65533;er barel.
Di luar persoalan di sisi suplly (mis. perang di Iraq), yang lebih di
khawatirkan sebagian kalangan adalah justeru di sisi demand: trend
melonjaknya kebutuhan minyak dunia, terutama oleh China.
Artikel di bawah ini bahkan mengungkapkan, bahwa untuk mengamankan
suplai minyaknya, China sudah cukup lama berusaha(dan berhasil) utk.
mendapatkan hak/konsesi eksploitasi dan dan eksplorasi minyak di
beberapa negara Timur-Tengah. Hak seperti itu, dapat diduga,
diperoleh China dengan memberikan imbalan yang menarik bagi negara-2
kawasan tersebut seperti ekspor senjata, atau bahkan ekspor teknologi
persenjataan.
Jika sumber utama minyak dunia masih di-dominasi kawasan Timur
Tengah, maka cepat atau lambat, akan ada konflik kepentingan
strategis China dan Amerika di Timur-Tengah.
***
Apa yang berkaitan langsung dengan kepentingan Indonesia adalah usaha
peng-anekaragaman sumber energi. Seperti telah kita ketahui bersama,
dalam 3-5 tahun terakhir iniIndonesia sudah berada di sekitar batas
ambang antara sebagai negara peng-ekspor minyak dan negara peng-impor
minyak. Jika dalam waktu dekat tidak ada penambahan sumur minyak yang
dapat diproduksi, atau adanya langkah pengurangan konsumsi minyak
yang drastis, Indonesia secara netto akan segera menjadi negara peng-
impor minyak.
(catatan: Indonesia meng ekspor minyak mentah kualitas tinggi: Light
Crude Oil yang berkadar belerang rendah, dan meng-impor minyak mentah
dengan grade yang lebih rendah untuk konsumsi dalam negeri ).
< http://www.malaysia-today.net >
Malaysia Today: Friday, 20-Aug-2004 9:30 AM
--------------------------------------
1.3 Billion Reasons to Worry about Oil
--------------------------------------
China to rival U.S. as oil guzzler
----------------------------------
American leaders have good reason to worry about the price
of oil. Oil price shocks can play a decisive role in ending
a presidency, as in the cases of Presidents Jimmy Carter and
George H. W. Bush. The Nov. 2 election may well hinge on the
cooling of the economic recovery caused by sustained high
levels of oil prices. But that's not really what the next
president should be so concerned about. The real oil shocks
- much more damaging and sustained than ever before - will
come a bit later, but much sooner than anyone had expected,
from a part of the world not even discussed seriously in the
current campaign: China.
With 1.3 billion people, a phenomenal rate of economic growth,
and an insatiable consumer demand for cars, China will soon
come into direct conflict with the United States over oil,
the world's most valuable and increasingly scarce industrial
commodity.
The pressure on supply will inevitably jack up prices to levels
that would make today's motorists and electricity customers
blanch.
The conflict is unavoidable. It could create geopolitical
tensions and cause dramatic shifts in U.S. foreign policy
that may overshadow today's preoccupation with global terrorism.
And there are no easy solutions to avert it, only regrets over
this nation's missed opportunities in decades past to develop
viable alternative energy sources to lessen U.S. dependence on
imported oil.
Any such program, initiated today, will take far too long to
bear fruit in time to avoid an economic and political clash with
China over oil.
Just a quick glimpse at the figures involved makes clear the
dimensions of the problem. China's economic growth has bubbled
along at a steamy pace of 8 to 10 percent a year for the past
decade.
With that growth, private auto sales in that vast nation have
skyrocketed from token levels 10 years ago - only 220,000 were
sold as recently as 1999 - to nearly 2 million this year. Last
year alone, China's automobile sales increased by a staggering
69 percent.
More cars than U.S. by 2030
---------------------------
It's estimated that China could have nearly 30 million automobiles
by 2010. By 2030, China is expected to have more cars than the
United States and import as much oil as the U.S. does today.
Already, China has overtaken Japan as the world's second biggest
importer of oil, after the United States. And its appetite is
huge and growing. As Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Research
Associates puts it, "China has gone from being a minor player in
world commodity markets, if a player at all, to being the decisive
ynamic factor today. In terms of oil, 40 percent of the entire
growth in oil demand since the year 2000 has been China."
In this quarter alone, China's demand for oil is projected to
increase 21 percent. That follows a 19-percent increase during
the first quarter of this year.
Nor are Chinese consumers, especially those in the growing middle
class produced by a booming technology sector, particularly
interested in fuel-efficient small cars. Gas-guzzling sport
utility vehicles are not simply an American passion. They are
in great demand in China, too.
In a report from China broadcast on National Public Radio in June,
a 35-year-old woman in Beijing, Sia Lan, an executive in China's
expanding advertising industry, said she, like many other of her
friends, prefers to drive SUVs. "I have a sedan car, too, which I
used to drive to work because my Jeep guzzles a lot more gas," she
said. "But I prefer my Jeep because I can see over all the other
cars."
A Chinese environmentalist, Liang Congjie, is distressed by the
implications. "If each Chinese family has two cars like U.S.
families, then the cars needed by China, something like 600
million vehicles, will exceed all the cars in the world
combined."
The prospect is daunting, not only for the effects it would
have on the world's production of greenhouse gases to accelerate
global warming, but also for the incredible pressure it would
put on the world's oil supply.
Just 10 years ago, China was self-sufficient in oil and actually
exported small quantities to other Asian nations. Now, imports
account for more than one- third of Chinese oil consumption.
And rather than relying on foreign oil companies to supply it
with oil, China wants its own oil firms to go directly overseas
to secure supply sources it can exploit itself.
Clash with U.S. in Mideast
--------------------------
This is where China's quest for more oil will come directly in
conflict with the concerns of U.S. foreign policy - particularly
in the Middle East.
During the Cold War, China stayed away from the Middle East.
That region's geographic distance and political instability deterred
it from securing ties with its major oil-exporting nations and,
at least until a decade ago, the old China of ox carts and
bicycles did not need to import oil.
But now the Middle East and relations with oil-producing nations
have become key interests in China's foreign policy, perhaps
second only to its obsession with Taiwan.
Exploring the world
-------------------
Today, nearly 60 percent of China's oil imports come from that
region. Through bilateral agreements, rather than international
mechanisms, and using arms sales and dual-use technology transfers
- nuclear equipment, guidance systems for missiles - to cement
ties, China has obtained oil exploration and exploitation rights
in some of the most turbulent nations in the Middle East and
North Africa - Iran, Sudan, Libya, Algeria and, until the recent
war, Iraq.
The case of Sudan, where international concern for the humanitarian
disaster in the Darfur region is intensifying, puts China's role
in perspective. It illustrates how Beijing's oil interests could
come in direct conflict with U.S. policy.
Chinese troops in Sudan
-----------------------
While Washington has begged the world - and pressured the United
Nations Security Council - to send peacekeeping troops to Sudan
to quell the sectarian fighting that has put a million refugees
at risk, China has already deployed 4,000 troops to Sudan. But
those troops are there only to protect China's investment in an
oil pipeline. China is concerned that civil unrest could wreck
the oil project. It has actually been hostile to U.S. pressure
to impose economic sanctions on the Arab government in Khartoum,
a key Chinese client, buyer of Chinese arms and partner in oil
exploration.
It was also telling that China was a major opponent at the
Security Council of the war against Iraq, in large part because
China had obtained prospective contracts with Saddam Hussein for
exclusive exploitation of some oil fields. But perhaps the most
worrisome prospect for U.S. policymakers is China's burgeoning
attempt to secure ties with Saudi Arabia, the world's arbiter of
the oil market, taking advantage of the Saudi regime's tensions
with Washington since the 9/11 attacks.
All these are disquieting harbingers of Beijing's coming conflict
with the United States over oil. It will come sooner than expected
and the United States is not prepared for it. This president or
his successor must, at the very least, alert the nation about its
consequences, initiate a national conversation about it and
encourage a program of energy conservation to alleviate the
obvious economic pressures we will all face.
China's need for oil is the proverbial 800-pound gorilla in the
room, and no one seems willing to confront it or even acknowledge
it - until it's too late.
-------------------------
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23.08.2004
Seandainya ia masih hidup, hari Minggu besok tokoh
pembaru Cina, Deng Xiaoping genap berusia 100 tahun.
Deng yang meninggal tahun 1997, dan di jaman kekuasaan
Mao Zedong tidak berkutik 25 tahun lalu untuk
mengakhiri era revolusi kebudayaan untuk selamanya dan
merintis politik reformasi dan politik keterbukaan
Cina. Sejak itu disebut-sebut tentang perekonomian
pasar di bawah selubung "Sosialisme ala Cina", dimana
Deng menempatkan Ekonomi sebagai Panglima. Kemajuan
apa yang telah dicapai Cina sejak saat itu dan dimana
masih tetap terdapat kekurangan? Lalu, apakah Cina
dengan 1,3 milyar penduduknya akan menjadi negara
adidaya atau hanya sebuah negara besar yang rapuh di
segi politik?
Apakah dalam waktu dekat terjadi Kepemimpinan Adikuasa
di dunia?
(Apakah Indonesia juga akan menyusul bahkan melampaui
Cina? Saya berharap demikian.)
======================================================
25 tahun pembaruan di Cina
Oleh: Ranier Sollich
Bayangkan saja seandainya Leonid Breshnev pada
jamannya memutuskan untuk berpaling dari
ekonomi-sosialis-terkendali dan mempropagandakan
pembangunan sistem ekonomi kapitalis. Ia dan para
penggantinya membangkitkan semangat kaum muda Rusia
agar kuliah di negara-negara imperialis barat dan
kemudian mengatakan, itu sama sekali tidak berarti
berpaling dari tujuan komunisme, melainkan hanyalah
perkembangan yang khusus ditempuh oleh Uni Sovyet.
Mungkin sulit dibayangkan tetapi boleh dikatakan sejak
25 tahun warga Cina dikelabui dengan cara demikian.
Pemimpin pembaruan Cina, Deng Xiaoping menyelamatkan
sekaligus mengubur sosialisme Cina dengan kalimat yang
patut diingat. Dikatakannya, "tidak peduli apakah
kucing itu putih atau hitam, yang penting dia
menangkap tikus". Dengan kata lain, sejak saat itu
semua yang mendatangkan keuntungan di segi enonomi
boleh dilakukan sehingga dengan demikian kekuasaan
partai juga terjamin. Partai Komunis Cina kini memang
memberikan kebebasan sehari-hari yang dulunya tidak
dapat dibayangkan, walaupun samapi sekarang penduduk
masih tetap tidak memiliki hak ikut menentukan arah
politik.
Dan Partai Komunis mengawasi sepenuhnya boom ekonomi
yang dikagumi oleh negara-negara barat, yang keamjuan
ekonomitersebut tidak ada kaitannya lagi dengan
keadilan sosial. Sebab boom ekonomi di Shanghai dan
Beijing dibebankan kepada penduduk di pedesaan yang
mencakup dua per tiga seluruh penduduk Cina. Dengan
diberlakukannya sistem ijin tinggal oleh kota-kota
besar maka penduduk desa dicegah datang ke kota. Para
petani Cina adalah kelompok yang dirugikan oleh
globalisasi. Pendapatan seorang petani selama setahun,
ibaratnya dapat saja dihabiskan oleh seorang manajer
di Beijing untuk sekali makan siang bersama
mitra-mitra bisnisnya.
Deng Xiaoping, yang hari Minggu besok genap berusia
100 tahun seandainya ia masih hidup, sekarang pun
masih tetap merupakan sosok kontradiksi di Cina.
Dialah yang menjadikan Cina sebagai lokasi produksi
dengan upah murah dan menjadi magnet bagi
perusahaan-perusahaan internasional namun sekaligus
dia juga yang pada tahun 1989, memerintahkan tentara
melepaskan tembakan ke arah mahasiswa yang tidak
berdaya dan demonstran lainnya.
25 tahun politik reformasi di Cina, artinya bangsa
yang secara tradisional merupakan bangsa pedagang
akhirnya dapat melepaskan diri dari belenggu
perekonomian terkendali. Walaupun, masih belum
diketahui sejauh mana keberhasilan ekonomi di
kota-kota itu akan mengakibatkan masalah sosial di
tempat lain. 25 tahun pembaruan di Cina juga berarti,
bahwa intelegensia masyarakat Cina masih tetap
dilecehkan dan dikekang dengan slogan-slogan partai
dan gertakan nasionalis terhadap Taiwan. Dan hasrat
untuk meraih kesejahteraan boleh dikatakan merupakan
satu-satunya perekat yang mempertahankan keutuhan
masyarakatnya.
Setidaknya ada segi positifnya, yaitu bahwa Cina
semakin ikut memikul tanggungjawab internasional. Cina
menjadi negara yang dapat diperhitungkan tetapi untuk
menjadi sebuah negara kuat di dunia sejajar dengan AS
seperti yang diinginkan oleh para politisi Cina, hanya
akan dapat tercapai bila seluruh masyarakatnya
terlibat penuh di segi ekonomi dan terutama juga dapat
ikut berbicara di segi politik. Selangkah demi
selangkah menuju demokrasi tanpa membahayakan
stabilitas negeri, kiranya merupakan tantangan
terbesar bagi para ahli waris Deng Xiaoping.
Sayangnya, mereka nampaknya masih belum memulai
langkah tsb.
---------------------------------
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