http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/FK19Ag02.html
How Russia keeps China armed By David Isenberg WASHINGTON - China may have lost the latest skirmish with the European Union to get the latter to lift its arms ban, but Beijing is still able to buy what it needs - solid, serviceable hardware and technology - from Russia, former Soviet-bloc nations and Israel. And the embargo gives China greater incentive to develop its own weapons systems. On Wednesday, the European parliament in Brussels voted, as expected, to maintain the EU embargo on arms trade with the People's Republic of China until the PRC improves its human rights record. It voted not to weaken national restrictions on such arms sales and said the ban should continue in force until the EU itself had adopted an improved code of conduct, providing legal restraints on arms experts. The current ban is largely voluntary, and strongly opposed by France and Germany. No matter, China is still a big arms buyer, though economic constraints if maintained at the current level probably will keep Beijing from doing anything extraordinary, military-wise, for the next decade, experts say. There is a famous incident recounted by the late Colonel Harry Summers, author of the classic 1982 book On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War. In it he notes that at the very end of the war he was in Hanoi trying to make an agreement on the former Republic of Vietnam. In the course of the conversation he said, "Well, at least we never lost a battle to you." One North Vietnamese general then replied, "That's true, but it doesn't matter." Much the same thing might be said concerning the debate over lifting the arms embargo on China. While China does not have the most modern weaponry or military technologies, the reality is that it has most of what it needs and is not having great difficulties in procuring from other countries, outside the European Union and the United States, what it does need. So the European parliament vote is not that significant to China. Where does China turn when it shops for military weapons? In a word, Russia. According to the Russian Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), China constitutes the largest single importer of post-Soviet Russian arms and military equipment, with purchases ranging between 30% and 50% of Russia's entire annual deliveries. Without those arms exports to China, Russia would lack the funds to modernize its own military. In fact, in the past Russia has prohibited the export of certain of its military aircraft, or production licenses, to China only to revoke the ban later on. Rosoboronexport, the sole state intermediary agency for Russia's military arms sales and exports, estimated that sales will total US$4.1 billion this year, down from $5.1 billion in 2003. Aircraft and ships account for over half of the exports. China purchased eight missile systems this summer from Russia and has already received 24 Su-30MKK fighters. Jane's Defence Weekly reported last month that China is in talks with Ukraine to obtain 42 turbofan engines to power its NAMC JL-8 basic jet trainer/light attack jet. The talks are a follow up on the 58 engines ordered in 1997 and since delivered to Beijing. China is also reported to have launched preliminary talks with Ukraine on the potential acquisition of the Antonov An-124 and An-225 Mriya heavy-transport aircraft to address long-standing strategic lift requirements for the People's Liberation Army. The former is the world's largest production aircraft and can carry a payload of at least 120 tons. The latter is even bigger, with a payload capacity in excess of 250 tons. In October, the Admiralteiskiye Verfi shipyard in St Petersburg turned over the first of two improved Kilo-class attack submarines to China's navy, PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy). The two submarines were unveiled at the shipyard last summer and are part of a Russia-China deal worth $1.5 billion that was signed in May 2002. The contract called for five submarines. Two are being built by Admiralteiskiye Verfi, while two others are being built by Sevmash in Severodvinsk. The final one is being built by Krasnoye Sormovo in Nizhni Novgorod. The Kilo is considered one of the most advanced diesel-electric submarines in the world and the subs will boost China's ability to conduct a naval blockade of Taiwan. According to a November 17 article in the Asian Wall Street Journal, by 2007 the PLAN force will have 12 Kilo-class subs. Most will be armed with "Club" anti-ship missiles, which have a range of 136 miles. According to John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a non-profit research group in Alexandria, Virginia, "China has acquired an enormous number of Sukhoi [fighter aircraft] variants from Russia, as well as destroyers and subs." He thinks the debate over an embargo is unimportant. "The EU decision to keep the arms embargo on China is not relevant to China insofar as Taiwan, or asserting rights in the South China Sea, is concerned," he told Asia Times Online. Sometimes when China is blocked from obtaining military systems it desires, that denial serves as an incentive to develop the arms and technology domestically. For example, in 2000, the US pressured Israel to back out of a $1 billion agreement to sell China four of its Phalcon phased-array radar systems, which would have been used for a Chinese AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System). Last week the Washington Post reported that China has developed its own AWACS, using a domestically produced advanced radar mounted on a Russian-made Il-76 transport aircraft, and is test-flying the first models for early deployment in the Taiwan Strait. The AWACS could be operational within one or two years, assuming the tests are successful. Israel has also been a long-standing supplier of advanced military technologies to China. According to the findings of a past US congressional committee chaired by Representative Christopher Cox (Republican-California), Israel has "offered significant technology cooperation to the People's Republic of China, especially in aircraft and missile development", including helping China build its current F-10 fighter jet. The Chinese F-10 is virtually identical to the discontinued Israeli Lavi fighter, an aircraft designed using $1.5 billion in US aid. The Lavi program, funded by the US and based largely on the F-16, was intended to provide Israel with its first domestically built fighter jet. Israel also transferred to China its STAR-1 cruise missile technology that incorporates US stealth technology and is a version of Israel's Delilah-2 missile, which contains US parts and technology. Perhaps the biggest constraint on advanced Chinese military modernization is economic, not political. According to Ted Carpenter, director of foreign policy studies at the Washington, DC-based Cato Institute, qualitatively, "they are still close to a generation behind the United States. Chinese progress will depend on how much economic resources they want to devote to it," he told Asia Times Online. "At the current level they would be hard put to do anything in the next decade." David Isenberg, a senior analyst with the Washington-based British American Security Information Council (BASIC), has a wide background in arms control and national security issues. The views expressed are his own. (Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact [EMAIL PROTECTED] for information on our sales and syndication policies.) ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> $9.95 domain names from Yahoo!. Register anything. http://us.click.yahoo.com/J8kdrA/y20IAA/yQLSAA/BRUplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> *************************************************************************** Berdikusi dg Santun & Elegan, dg Semangat Persahabatan. 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