Two-headed, multicore chips.  Sampai kapan Moore's law
jadi invalid?  Saya forward cerita ini, untuk dibahas
mereka yang lebih mengerti.

Salam, 
RM

-------------------------------------------
 
http://www.dailypress.com/technology/ats-ap_technology10dec20,0,2773441.story?coll=sns-technology-headlines


Industry Gears Up for Two-Headed Chips
  
By MATTHEW FORDAHL
AP Technology Writer

December 20 2004, 9:10 PM EST

SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- For decades, computer
performance has been driven largely by the increasing
numbers of ever-smaller transistors squeezed into the
machines' silicon brains. With each generation, speeds
jumped and prices dropped. 

Though the tiny switches built in silicon are the
heart of the digital revolution, they can't shrink
forever. And in recent years, chip companies have
struggled to keep a lid on power and heat -- the
result of some transistor components getting as thin
as a few atoms across. 

Now, the world's leading semiconductor companies have
unveiled a remarkably similar strategy for working
around the problem: In 2005, microprocessors sold for
personal computers will sprout what amounts to two
heads each. 

Instead of building processors with a single core to
handle calculations, designers will place two or more
computing engines on a single chip. They won't run as
fast as single-engine models, but they won't require
as much power, either, and will be able to handle more
work at once. 

"There are challenges certainly in this change," said
Bernard Meyerson, chief technologist at IBM's Systems
and Technology Group. "You're looking at a seminal
shift of the industry." 

Intel says it will start shipping dual core chips for
desktops, laptops and servers by midyear. AMD will
start with a dual-core server chip before releasing
ones for desktops and laptops, also in 2005. 

Multicore technology is hardly new -- it's already
being used in server and networking chips. The concept
of using multiple, standalone microprocessors in a
computer isn't new either -- Apple Computer Inc. and
other vendors have sold dual- and multiprocessor
machines for years. 

IBM, which pioneered multicore chips in 2001 for
servers, now says it will develop a multicore chip
with Sony Corp. and Toshiba Corp. for video game
consoles, high-definition TVs and home servers. The
chip, dubbed Cell, should start shipping in 2006. 

The shift toward dual- and multicore processors is
expected to provide the industry some breathing room
as it strives to continue the computing law named
after Intel co-founder Gordon Moore -- that the number
of transistors doubles roughly every 18 months. 

New, exotic materials and more advanced manufacturing
techniques are expected to help the industry maintain
the pace predicted by Moore in 1965. But the bulk
performance improvement will be the result of
higher-level innovation, such as multicore chips. 

That's because of the electrical leakage caused by the
smaller and smaller dimensions of transistor
components. Merely ratcheting up the clock speed
generates dramatically more heat and provides less
bang for the buck performance-wise. 

The transition to multicore processors appears to have
been more jarring for some companies than others. 

AMD claims its latest chip architecture was developed
from the ground up with the move to dual- and
multicore chips in mind. In fact, AMD has been
downplaying the clock speed of its chips, which
trailed the frequency of Intel's offerings, since
2001. 

"What's interesting to us is all of a sudden people
are talking about it," said Ben Williams, vice
president of AMD's server and workstation business. 

Intel, whose executives once touted plans for 10
gigahertz chips, moved away from its strong focus on
clock speed in 2004 -- which for many reasons will be
remembered as an annus horribilis for the world's
largest chip maker despite record sales and strong
profits. 

During the year, it canceled a next-generation Pentium
4 project, which had been code named Tejas. It also
postponed plans for a 4-gigahertz Pentium under its
current Prescott core before outright canceling that,
too. Its top performer runs at 3.8 gigahertz. 

Intel executives don't specifically blame the sudden
change in plans on power consumption and heat, though
the heat of Prescott-based processors suggests it
might be the case. Instead, they say it just made more
sense to shift toward dual- and multicore chips. 

"We decided it was a better way to use our transistor
budget and a better way to deliver performance and
responsive computers to our users," said Stephen
Smith, a vice president in Intel's Desktop Platforms
Group. 

Despite the slower clock speeds compared with
single-core chips, the new processors are well suited
for computer users who run multiple programs at once.
Though operating systems have been capable of
multitasking for years, it's been something of an
illusion on the hardware end. 

"What's going on inside of the machine is a bit of a
juggling act," said Justin Rattner, an Intel senior
fellow. "You've got that one engine doing a little bit
of each one of those things, and it appears to users
that they're all happening at once." 

To take full advantage of multiple cores, programs
have to be redesigned so that they know what the
processor is capable of handling. 

Intel said it paved the way on that front with a
technology it introduced in 2002 called
Hyper-Threading. 

Built into Windows XP and supported by most Linux
builds, hyper-threading tricks the operating system
into thinking there is more than one processing engine
in the computer, using idle moments to handle
additional work. 

Existing software applications run on a multicore chip
on top of Windows. But many will need to be rebuilt to
take full advantage of dual-core chips if they haven't
already been optimized for Hyper-Threading. 

Still, it's not clear how quickly Intel expected the
shift to dual-core chips to occur once Hyper-Threading
had been introduced. 

Opined Nathan Brookwood, an analyst at the research
firm Insight 64: "I think there may be a little bit of
revisionism here, but it sure worked out well,
regardless of whether it was a plan or they were
lucky." 

The Associated Press 



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