Crisis Is Upon Us
by Paul Craig Roberts

A number of experts have concluded that despite the
Bush administration' s desire to attack Iran, the
aggression would be too rash and the consequences too
dire even for the irrational Bush administration. 

Military experts point out that at a time when
generals are calling for more troops for Afghanistan
and Iraq, it would be ill-advised for Bush to add Iran
to the war theater. Experts note that Ira is well
armed with missiles capable of attacking US ships and
oil facilities throughout the Middle East and that
Iran can direct its Shiite allies in Iraq to assault
US troops there and set in motion terrorist actions
throughout the Middle East.

Diplomatic experts point out that the US is isolated
in its desire for war with Iran and has no ally except
Israel, thus validating Muslim claims that the US is
Israel's instrument against Muslims in the Middle
East. Experts note that military aggression is a war
crime and that US violations of international law
isolate the US and destroy the soft power on which US
leadership has been based. An attack on Iran could be
the last straw for Muslims chaffing under the rule of
US puppet governments in Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan and
Saudi Arabia.

Economic experts point out that the impact on the
price of oil would be severe and the economic
consequences detrimental. With the US housing bubble
deflating, now is not the time for an oil shock.

It is difficult to take exception to this expert
analysis. Nevertheless, the Bush administration
continues to send war signals. Credible news
organizations have reported that US naval attack
groups have been given "prepare to deploy orders" that
would put them on station off Iran by October 21. 

How can Bush administration war plans be reconi led
with expert opinion that the consequences would be too
dire for the US?

Perhaps the answer is that what appears as
irrationality to experts is rationality to
neoconservatives. Neocons seek maximum chaos and
instability in the Middle East in order to justify
long-term US occupation of the region. Following this
line of thought, neocons would regard the loss of a US
aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf as a way to
solidify public support for the war. US public anger
at the Iranians could even result in US public support
for a military draft in order to win "the war on
terror." 

The Bush administration could bring Congress around by
announcing a "Gulf of Tonkin" incident or by
orchestrating a "terrorist attack." However, this is
unnecessary as Bush has prepared the ground for
bypassing Congress with his propagandistic allegations
that Iran, by arming Iraqi insurgents, sponsoring
terrorism, and building nuclear weapons, is the major
part of the ongoing "war against terrorism." Now that
Iran is blamed for rising violence in Iraq, an attack
on Iran follows as a matter of course. All Bush has to
do is to continue with his lies in order to bring the
American public to a new war hysteria.

Bush's attorney general has demonstrated that he has
no qualms about validating any and all extra-legal
powers that the White House requires for violating the
US Constitution and international law. The
congressional attempts to block illegal wiretapping
and torture have failed. The Senate has refused to
authorize torture, but the Senate has not prevented
the administration from torturing detainees. The
compromise leaves it to the White House to decide by
executive order whether its interrogation practices
are objectionable. In an editorial (September 22,
2006), the Washington Post concluded that "the abuse
can continue."

Polls show that Bush administration propaganda has
convinced a majority of inattentive Americans that
Iran is making nuclear weapons. Polls show that a
majority support an attack on Iran under this
circumstance. The neoconservatives and their media
allies have succeeded in causing the public to confuse
Iran's legal nuclear energy program with a weapons
program. 

The International Atomic Energy Agency, whose
inspectors pour over Iran's nuclear energy program for
signs of a weapons program, recently denounced a House
Intelligence Committee report as "outrageous and
dishonest." Written by the Republican neocon staff,
the Republican report falsely alleges that Iran had
enriched uranium to weapons grade last April and that
the IAEA had removed a senior safeguards inspector to
keep the alleged breach of the Nuclear
Non-proliferation Pact secret. 

Once again neoconservatives have shown that they will
tell any and every lie to achieve their goal of
attacking Iran. Jingoistic anti-UN Bush supporters
will automatically believe the neocon lie and will
swallow right-wing talk radio claims that the UN is
protecting Iran's nuclear weapons program. As we
learned from the Iraq hysteria, facts and experts are
no impediment to the Bush administration' s lies.

Rumsfeld's neocon Pentagon has rewritten US war
doctrine to permit preemptive nuclear attack on
non-nuclear countries. As the USpaid a huge public
relations cost in terms of world opinion and distrust
of the US by endorsing the first use of nuclear
weapons, the revision of US war doctrine must have a
purpose.

Neocons claim that tactical nuclear weapons are
necessary to destroy Iran's underground facilities.
However, the real reason for using nukes against Iran
is to intimidate Iran from retaliating and to threaten
the entire Muslim world with genocide unless Muslims
bend to the neocons?will and accept US hegemony over
their part of the world.

September 25, 2006
Dr. Roberts [end him mail] is Chairman of the
Institute for Political Economy and Research Fellow at
the Independent Institute. He is a former associate
editor of the Wall Street Journal, former contributing
editor for National Review, and was Assistant
Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan
administration. He is the co-author of The Tyranny of
Good Intentions. 


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