http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/forget-gold-and-silver-invest-in-garlic-1828755.html

Forget gold and silver, invest in garlic

Thanks to a belief in its flu-repellent powers, garlic traders are on course to 
get stinking rich this year

By Andy McSmith


Friday, 27 November 2009





 

Getty

In China the belief that garlic can ward off swine flu has caused sales to 
sky-rocket

If you want to get rich in China, the way to do it this year is to buy and sell 
garlic., the way to do it this year is to buy and sell garlic. The Chinese have 
always had a taste for the bulb vegetable that makes your breath smell but now 
there has been an incredible surge in its price, which makes the property boom 
look static by comparison. Garlic has been a better investment this year than 
gold or silver.


But why? Garlic, surely, is nothing but a smelly, unromantic little vegetable 
which nobody eats in any great quantity unless they want to lose all their 
friends. So why should the garlic traders of Jinxiang province, the 
garlic-producing heartland of China, be stinking rich this year?

One reason is a belief that it can keep you safe from swine flu. In north 
China, chewing garlic to ward off flu and other ailments is an old practice and 
it is suspected that traders have been encouraging people to believe that it is 
an effective way to survive the H1N1 epidemic. The China Daily reported last 
week that a high school in the city of Hangzhou, in eastern China, had bought 
200kg of garlic and is making its unfortunate students eat it for lunch every 
day for the good of their health.

But the much tastier honeysuckle is reputed to have the same preventive 
qualities and the price of that has not soared, while the wholesale price of 
garlic has. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the average price of a 
kilogram of the vegetable has risen from 1.60 yuan (14p) in March to 6.14 yuan 
(54p) now. In some markets, the price has risen 15-fold, or even 40-fold, 
according to Jerry Lou, a Morgan Stanley analyst. "You need a warehouse, a lot 
of cash and a few trucks," Mr Lou told The Washington Post. "Basically, what 
you do is try to arrest as much supply as possible, then you bid up the price. 
Moving garlic from one warehouse to the other, you make millions of dollars."

In China, garlic is big business. The country produces three times more of it 
than the rest of the world combined, much of it for export. When wholesale 
prices balloon, some people make a lot of money, while others can get their 
fingers burnt if the price drops suddenly. The story has echoes of the great 
Dutch tulip bubble of 1637, when people went bankrupt because of a false belief 
that the price of tulip bulbs would go on rising forever. 

When the world recession hit last year, Chinese farmers planted less garlic in 
anticipation of a falling market. According to the specialist garlic website, 
www.dasuan.cn, the total area under garlic cultivation dropped from 673,670 
hectares (1.7 million acres) in 2007 to 370,519 hectares (0.9 million acres) in 
2008.

Meanwhile, banks poured cash into the economy, giving speculators an opening to 
buy up the garlic harvest before it was ripe, store it, and wait for the price 
to rise. 

The Chinese are not the only people to believe in the power of garlic. European 
folklore has attributed all kinds of healing properties to it, not least its 
power to repel vampires, used to good effect in Bram Stoker's novel Dracula. 
Garlic does, indeed, have the power to kill bacteria, but it is not powerful 
enough to make a person immune from swine flu. As to whether it makes a vampire 
scream and run away, you would have to ask Stephanie Meyer


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