Allen Ayers wrote:
I have only one modern machine, and it runs eight (8) hours a day.
statistics is not my forte, but let me take a stab at it...
First, see the table here, http://mersenne.org/status.htm
currently, automatic assignments are in the 27,000,000 - 29,999,000 range
seemingly. Per that table, there's 63,182 untested/unknown M' candidates, and
the odds of one of those being a prime is 0.26, so the odds of any one of those
candidates being a prime is 1:243007 ...
your machine is running 8 hours/day, I'm going to assume thats 40 hrs/week...
if its a 3.8Ghz P4 like the one I just benchmarked, it will take it about 330
hours to crunch one candidate. at 40/week, thats 8.4 weeks, or 6.2
candidates/year. So, the odds of you finding a prime in the next year with a
single 3.8Ghz P4 running 8 hr/day, 5 day/week are about 1:39200.
If you leave that machine on 24/7 and disable hibernate/standby so its always
running full speed, those odds change to about 1:9700
of course, thats odds. you could find one next week. or not.
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