Thank you, John. Allen ----- Original Message ----- From: "John R Pierce" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "The Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search list" <[email protected]> Sent: Saturday, July 30, 2005 1:30 PM Subject: Re: [Prime] Probably
> Allen Ayers wrote: > > I have only one modern machine, and it runs eight (8) hours a day. > > statistics is not my forte, but let me take a stab at it... > > First, see the table here, http://mersenne.org/status.htm > > currently, automatic assignments are in the 27,000,000 - 29,999,000 range > seemingly. Per that table, there's 63,182 untested/unknown M' candidates, and > the odds of one of those being a prime is 0.26, so the odds of any one of those > candidates being a prime is 1:243007 ... > > your machine is running 8 hours/day, I'm going to assume thats 40 hrs/week... > if its a 3.8Ghz P4 like the one I just benchmarked, it will take it about 330 > hours to crunch one candidate. at 40/week, thats 8.4 weeks, or 6.2 > candidates/year. So, the odds of you finding a prime in the next year with a > single 3.8Ghz P4 running 8 hr/day, 5 day/week are about 1:39200. > > If you leave that machine on 24/7 and disable hibernate/standby so its always > running full speed, those odds change to about 1:9700 > > of course, thats odds. you could find one next week. or not. > _______________________________________________ > Prime mailing list > [email protected] > http://hogranch.com/mailman/listinfo/prime > _______________________________________________ Prime mailing list [email protected] http://hogranch.com/mailman/listinfo/prime
