Well, I was waiting for the flood of post-election emails to die down but
things are happening so fast that my predictions may turn into yesterday's
news.
As soon as I heard Obama won the election, I predicted trouble for the
mid-East. And that it'll eventually spill over into the rest of the world.
We know that Obama is no friend of Israel. He skipped the nation on his
visit to the mid-East where he stopped in almost every neighboring Arab
nation. They definitely took notice of that. And Obama's overtures to
Islamic states, and his lack of action when US citizens are attacked will
continue to embolden them.
So where is this headed? Maybe something like this:
- Arab states now see the US as backing away from Israel. After all, we
re-elected Obama and it's pretty clear he prefers Islamic nations over Israel.
- Arab factions may start something against Israel. The intent would be to
provoke Israel into military action. It may not be an outright attack, it
could be simply spreading rumors or threats.
- Israel will take military action against the Arabs. It may be small,
directed attacks at first. This could be strikes into the closest
danger to Israel (e.g. Gaza) or even over into Iran (nuclear facilities).
- Because of the "terrible militant Jews" the Arab world will attempt to
rally the United Nations against Israel because of those strikes. Not
necessarily to actually get action, but to at least stall the larger powers
from getting involved in the upcoming war.
- At this point, if they think the timing is right, the Arab nations will
launch an attack against Israel. But it may not be the typical conventional
attack - it may be masses of terrorist attacks. And Israel will of course
escalate its responses.
- If Iran or another Arab nation has a nuclear device, they will use it. It
may be small - and they may actually detonate it outside Israel's border
because of tight security. The desire would be to kill as many Jews as
possible with radioactive fallout.
- But if a nuclear device is used against Israel, we can expect a massive
nuclear retaliation. Probably in Mecca and Medina at least, and then going
after military capacity.
That's what it looks like from my chair. Of course, the Arabs may go for a
conventional type war as they've done before if they don't have the nuclear
bomb yet. If they go that route they'll very likely get pasted like they
always were in the past by Israel. But the Arabs may hope that they'll get
support from Russia/China and could win by attrition if the US won't come
to Israel's aid.
Now the rest of the world will get into the mix one way or another because
of the oil supply. Russia/China may even go so far as to help the Arabs get
the nuclear bomb for a promise of future oil. And if Russia/China think
they can get the Arabs to oil-starve the US, all the better. In the United
States, as the situation gets worse, our gas prices will go through the
roof. This will send our economy into a severe downturn like it did a while
back when gas prices rose sharply. And in our already weakened state, we're
going to be in rough shape. The Obama administration may take advantage of
that situation to "take control" of the oil industry (not likely as most
people should definitely see that as an attack on our economic system - but
then we've been pretty blind to what he's done already <shrug>). This will
contribute to us essentially ignoring Israel and the growing mid-East crisis.
I was thinking about writing this note last Friday but got side-tracked.
And now today I hear that Israel has performed surgical strikes into Gaza.
They killed the leader of the terrorist group there - Hamas I think it's
called. And now, of course, the Arabs are trying to incite themselves
against Israel. Things are in motion. Of course the timing isn't certain.
There could be all kinds of posturing and secret deals for months or a
couple years. And I've heard rumors that Israel has found large oil
reserves on it's land. If that's true you can bet the Arab countries will
not sit by and let Israel develop into a major oil producing nation. It
looks like the stage for the final showdown has been set.
-Charlie
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