Don't jump too fast! It will be more years before something really compelling comes along, and whatever it is, it ain't going to be MS and .NET.
.NET embodies and defines MS's entire approach to computers, and the company has moved to settle on it for years to come. Trouble for MS is that Windows and .NET are inherently deficient and this move basically paints MS into a corner. What will replace the MS way of thinking with computing is a mix of centralized and distributed control over computer systems. MS has husbanded and lorded over the key pieces of this all along, and people take if for granted, but there is a better way, and someone is going to deliver it. MS's approach to centralized control of our machines really fell apart when security became important and expected solutions weren't forthcoming. MS couldn't get this job done, and today we're all left to wonder what's gotten into our machines, but more importantly what will happen next. The problem is the MS business model. This becomes clear when one looks at IBM's model, which places ownership and control of your computer in your hands in such a way that not does IBM supply you with the OS and product revisions, but other vendors can contribute equally to the mix, in the same organized way, with everyone sharing the same internals knowledge, organization and distribution mechanics. This means that customers can build and customize computer installations to take advantage of the strengths of different software vendors, who are all armed with the same inside information and share the same mechanics for distributing their software and changes as IBM. Today we live with patchworks that can hardly be called organized. With MS and .NET, MS alone has centralized control over the OS and it's major components, with companies like Oracle, Delphi, SAP, SAS, - the list goes on and on, kept outside of core information and the methodology for product and maintenance distribution, so they cannot work with a shared model and every player has to invent their own independent wheels that more or less fit. This does not promote the synergy needed to overcome the security problem, and in fact contributes to it. Centralized control over Windows distribution and maintenance has long been a competitive advantage for MS, and MS takes it for granted today. Who can compete with (or, as I'm saying, contribute to) the company at the center that owns and covets critical knowledge it wouldn't share, and an entire distribution and software maintenance methodology they wouldn't share either. People who grew up in the MS world and have never seen the "other world" should know it exists, and it's not a secret, because it's only a matter of time before some company somewhere, perhaps IBM, but that's arguable. What isn't is that (a) a methodology equal to or superior to IBM's is needed, and (b) some company somewhere will fill it this need. It could be, for example, Intel, who undoubtedly understands IBM very well. But then there are countries with thousands and thousands of programmers eager to work on something really good. Give them specs like this and the task, and they'll flock to it. The world of 5-10 years from now will be very different then it is today. Look back in 5-10 year chunks to see what's happened before, and then factor in that we live in a world of accelerating change. Will MS lead the way and be in the forefront in 5-10 years? On the basis of MS's predilection to husbanding, and it's weaknesses, I think not. To solve our biggest problems we're going to need every bit of synergy we can get, and MS's position is contrary to this thinking. So, given that we will eventually have to consider re-writing our applications one way or the other, I for one will very grudgingly do it even one more time, and that will happen only when I'm convinced the model is right. Certainly that isn't happening today. But next year, the year after? It will just get more likely with each year until it happens. Bill _______________________________________________ Post Messages to: [email protected] Subscription Maintenance: http://leafe.com/mailman/listinfo/profox OT-free version of this list: http://leafe.com/mailman/listinfo/profoxtech Searchable Archive: http://leafe.com/archives/search/profox This message: http://leafe.com/archives/byMID/profox/8e0a80f30caf40b4a487135e32360...@bills ** All postings, unless explicitly stated otherwise, are the opinions of the author, and do not constitute legal or medical advice. This statement is added to the messages for those lawyers who are too stupid to see the obvious.
