Refl: Satu gambar lebih berharga dari 1000 kata, demikian ucapan klasik Tiongkok. Gambar pada artikel dibawah ini terlihat bangunan-bangunan tinggi yang sudah selasai maupun yang sedang dibangun. Gamar ini tidak lain tentang pembangunan di Jakarta bukan di daerah. Jadi tidak mencerminkan “boom" pembangunan di berbagai daerah dalam wilayah Indonesia. Mungkin saja beleid politik ekonomi yang diaplikasikan oleh pihak berkuasa ialah yang disebut “spil over economy”, yaitu jika tempat dikonsentrasi aktivitas ekonomi pada suatu wilayah dan bila wilayah ini telah benar-benar kaya akan tertumpah kelebihannya dan merambat ke berbagai wilayah dan kemakmuran pun bisa dicapai. Jadi kalau diterjemahkan ialah kalau Jakarta termasuk pulau Jawa sudah kaya raya maka kelebihan kekayaan akan memperkaya daerah-daerah. Bisakah demikian? Bagaimana komentar para pakar terhadap asumsi yang dikemukan? Silahkan dikoreksi bila keliru.
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/analysts-look-abroad-for-guide-to-local-growth/488392 Analysts Look Abroad for Guide To Local Growth Muhamad Al Azhari | January 01, 2012 Indonesia was last month upgraded to investment grade by Fitch Ratings, a move expected to boost investment. (Reuters Photo) Indonesia’s economy in 2012 will be affected by the movement of financial tides off-shore. But opinions differ on the extent of the foreign influence, which one analyst says could wipe nearly one-third off the size of the nation’s economic growth. The archipelago’s economy is driven by consumption, and Trimegah Securities, one of the largest brokerages in the country, proposed three scenarios for economic growth. In its best-case scenario, where Indonesia’s economy will face “negligible impact from recession in developed markets,” Trimegah forecast growth at 6-6.5 percent, with inflation at 6-6.5 percent. In its worst-case scenario, with Indonesia’s “economy deteriorating heavily as developed markets’ sovereign-debt crisis causes its banking system to stop working, hence influencing global demand,” Trimegah projected Indonesia’s economy to grow at 4.5-5.5 percent, driven mainly domestic consumption. Household spending accounts for around two-thirds of Indonesia’s economic activity. Inflation of 4-5 percent is anticipated under this scenario, the broker said. Lastly, in a so-called “base case” scenario, Trimegah said that Indonesia’s economy won’t be completely shielded from the impact of economies in developed nations. Under this the island nation’s growth is expected at 5.5-6 percent, with inflation at 5-6 percent, according to Trimegah. Still, UBS Investment Research said in a December report that the negative impact of the crisis in Europe is likely to be noticeable in the first quarter through weaker foreign-currency loans and lower income in commodity-producing regions. Demand for commodities will be down in Europe, and falling commodity prices will affect Indonesia’s economy, it said. “We expect the external environment for 2012 to be worse than in 2011,” UBS said in its report released before Indonesia had its sovereign debt raised by Fitch Ratings on Dec. 15 to investment grade, the first time in 14 years. Such concerns prompted UBS analysts to put a 5.5 percent growth forecast for Indonesia this year. Its 2012 forecast is lower than the 6.3 percent growth estimate by Bank Indonesia. It is also lower than the government’s forecast of 6.7 percent, as set in the 2012 budget. However, UBS sees economic growth accelerating in 2013 to 6.1 percent due to fiscal and monetary easing. Remaining optimistic, Suryo Bambang Sulistyo, chairman of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin), projects the economy expanding 7 percent this year with food, mining and energy sector becoming the backbone of growth. “It is very possible. We have enormous potential. I am optimistic that 7 percent growth is reachable,” he said on Friday. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ Post message: [email protected] Subscribe : [email protected] Unsubscribe : [email protected] List owner : [email protected] Homepage : http://proletar.8m.com/Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/proletar/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/proletar/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
