http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/bomb-fears-as-mastermind-waits-to-strike/2006/08/05/1154198378674.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Bomb fears as mastermind waits to strike August 6, 2006 Wanted: Noordin Mohammed Top against the devastation of bomb blasts that killed 23 people at Jimbaran Bay, Bali, last October. Photo: AP AS INDONESIA enters the bombing season - the time of year when for the past four years extremists have launched major terrorist attacks - experts are warning of the risk of another atrocity. But amid the alarm, there is a glimmer of good news from the front line on the war on terrorism. Jemaah Islamiah, the group blamed for the attacks carried out each year since the 2002 Bali bombings, has been weakened by intense police pressure and internal divisions. The bad news is that Indonesia's most wanted man, the leader of JI's pro-bombing faction, Noordin Mohammed Top, remains on the loose and has forged new alliances with networks of extremists across the Indonesian archipelago. And according to experts, the setbacks he has faced and the diverse networks he's now using have complicated the counter-terrorism fight and possibly given him extra motivation to strike again this year. In the years since the first Bali bombings, in October 2002, all the major attacks on largely Western targets in Indonesia - in 2003, 2004 and 2005 - have taken place between August and October. That pattern has analysts worried that JI, or a new splinter group led by Noordin, will strike again. "Recent annual attacks have created a pattern that causes obvious concern and, it must be assumed, some pressure on the perpetrators to maintain the rhythmic tempo of their attacks," says Christian Le Miere of the British-based Jane's defence and security information group. Arrested JI members have revealed JI's leadership is "increasingly anxious to perpetrate a major attack to maintain its momentum and to restore the flagging morale of its members," said Neil Fergus of Intelligent Risks, a security and risk consultancy. Experts see no symbolism in JI's pattern of annual attacks. Rather, the timing is dictated by the bombers' own operational needs: the time it takes to pick targets, build bombs and recruit and train bombers, while at the same time avoiding surveillance. Attacks are occurring "when they're in a position to strike," said a source with knowledge of JI's operations. "We don't put any credence on a particular set of dates," the source says. "We think an attack can occur at any time." The Federal Government continues to warn Australians against travelling to Indonesia because of "the very high threat of terrorist attack". Its official advisory refers to "a stream of reporting indicating terrorists are in the advanced stages of planning attacks against Western interests in Indonesia". The threat of another attack comes despite the successes of Indonesian police, backed by Australian training and technical expertise, particularly in tracing mobile phone calls. The death of Noordin's key accomplice and bomb-maker, Azahari Husin, and the arrest of fellow travellers in a police raid in East Java last November, was a major breakthrough. Then in April this year, police killed two members of Noordin's inner circle and captured two others in Wonosobo, Central Java. Last week Indonesian police were reported to be combing villages in East Java for extremists, believed to include the Malaysian-born Noordin. But even as police close in, the arrest of Noordin will still leave his support structure in place, says Sidney Jones, an expert on JI with the International Crisis Group. In a report in May, Ms Jones warned that Noordin had set up a "deviant splinter" group from JI that he called "al-Qaeda for the Malay Archipelago". This group draws on networks of extreme Islamists, many of whom have experience in the sectarian conflicts in Poso and Ambon, in eastern Indonesia. These networks would survive as a potential source of recruits for future attacks, even if Noordin was captured or killed. Despite media portrayals of JI as monolithic, it lacks clear leadership and has been torn by internal divisions over the ethics of attacks causing mass casualties, most of them not Westerners but Indonesian Muslims. Traditional JI leaders, including their spiritual head Abu Bakar Bashir, want to transform the group into a formal Islamic community organisation, with the long-term aim of creating an Islamic state in Indonesia. Ms Jones told a seminar in Singapore last month that JI was now in disarray, through the mass arrests of members, a weakening support base and a popular backlash against the bombings. She said the terrorist threat in Indonesia was probably declining, while the notion of JI as an affiliate of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda group was "anachronistic and inaccurate". But even if the threat from JI is declining, other risks remain. The new danger, according to Ms Jones, is that JI's ostracised pro-bomb faction will use new networks forged in the Poso and Ambon conflicts, "to conduct operations that are increasingly outside the control and command structure of JI". The question now is how to counter those groups, she said, "because all of those guys are seriously dangerous". Other experts question whether the evolving tactics being adopted by the bombers mean a lessening of the threat. Asked if JI was still capable of launching major attacks, security consultant Neil Fergus is emphatic: "Yes. The question is not if. The issues are when will the next one occur and where." Pattern of terror ?October 2, 2005 Suicide bombers set off three blasts in Bali, which kill 23 people, including the three bombers. Four Australians among the dead. ? September 9, 2004 A bomb outside the Australian embassy in Jakarta kills 10 Indonesians. ? August 5, 2003 A bomb outside the J. W. Marriott Hotel in Jakarta kills 12, wounds 150. ? October 12, 2002 Blasts in Bali kill 202 people, including 88 Australians. Source: Reuters [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] Post message: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subscribe : [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe : [EMAIL PROTECTED] List owner : [EMAIL PROTECTED] Homepage : http://proletar.8m.com/ Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/proletar/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
