This is shit blown off proportion: Pakistan is fine before Bhutto and will be fine without Bhutto.
On Dec 27, 2007 7:16 PM, holyuncle <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > December 27, 2007 11:40 AM > > After Bhutto > A nation in crisis. > > An NRO Symposium > > Editor＊s note: Former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto was > assassinated in Rawalpindi Thursday. National Review Online asked a > group of experts on the region to gauge what her murder means for > her country. > > > Jonathan Foreman > I was in Islamabad, Pakistan, four days ago, but it might as well be > four months or four years ago: The whole political landscape has > changed with Benazir Bhutto＊s murder. > > In the very short term, Pervez Musharraf is likely to declare > another state of emergency or even martial law. Friends calling from > the Pakistani capital tonight say that cars are being torched in the > street as members of Benazir＊s party, the Pakistani Peoples＊ Party > (PPP), express their anger and grief. This could easily grow into > widespread civil unrest, especially in the wake of her funeral > tomorrow. > > Looking beyond the next few days it seems unlikely that an election > will be held on the 8th of January (though both Benazir and Nawaz > Sharif were both technically barred from standing for prime > minister). > > As for Musharraf, he＊ll be badly damaged at least in the short term. > > While Benazir had plenty of enemies, including jihadis who detested > the idea of a woman leader and who were furious at her newly robust > pro-Western antiterrorist stance (she had said she would let U.S. > troops hunt for Osama bin Laden within Pakistani territory and allow > a proper international interrogation of nuclear proliferator A. Q. > Khan) every conspiracy theorist in Pakistan and among the Pakistani > diaspora will assume that Musharraf or people around him were > responsible for the assassination. After all, Musharraf warned > against Benazir＊s return, predicted havoc if she came back, and > didn＊t really want to make a deal with her. > > On the other hand it may be that a larger section of the Pakistani > elite 〞 and the Pakistani military establishment 〞 will finally > take the militant threat more seriously: too often in Pakistan the > battle against militant extremism is seen as an American fight that > Pakistan is involved in only because its forces are paid to do so by > Washington. > > But even if that is the case, the assassination of Benazir is a > tragic development for Pakistan and the region as a whole. > > 〞 Jonathan Foreman is a journalist who has covered Pakistan, > Afghanistan, and Iraq. > > > > Sumit Ganguly > Benazir Bhutto＊s assassination has generated an understandable > outpouring of sympathy in both the United States and in Pakistan. > However, even though it may seem churlish it needs to be stated that > her tragic demise was the chronicle of a death foretold. The neo- > Taliban had already launched one unsuccessful assassination attempt > on her life on the very day of her return to Pakistan. They had also > vowed that they would make further attempts. In all likelihood, they > were behind this second and successful attempt. Sadly, even if the > military was not complicit in this tragic act they bear some > responsibility as they had, in the past several months allowed the > neo-Taliban to re-group. > > What happens next in Pakistan? Much depends on three distinct > issues. First, will her supporters in the Pakistan People＊s Party > manage to sustain a peaceful but sustained campaign against > Musharraf and the Pakistani military? Second, how will the military > respond to the inevitable demonstrations that are likely to ensue > both before and after her funeral which is bound to produce an > outpouring of public anger and grief? Third and finally, how will > the United States, the United Kingdom and other major powers react > toward the actions of the military? Will they counsel restraint and > hold the military to account or will they simply grant them leeway > to act with impunity as long as they can maintain some semblance of > public order? > > 〞 Sumit Ganguly is a professor of political science and director of > research of the Center on American and Global Security at Indiana > University, Bloomington. > > > Daveed Gartenstein-Ross > Benazir Bhutto＊s assassination is a tragedy, and likely a strategic > setback as well. It is tragic because, despite the notorious > corruption of Bhutto＊s administration, in many ways she represented > the best that Pakistan has to offer. Bhutto boldly opposed the > fundamentalists＊ dark vision for Pakistan and was openly pro-West. > After the unsuccessful attempt on Bhutto＊s life in October, she > called out by name the figures whom she believed were complicit. > > The most likely culprit in Bhutto＊s death is al-Qaeda and aligned > militant groups 〞 the same groups who swore they would kill Bhutto > when her return to Pakistan was announced, the same groups who tried > to kill her in October. If al-Qaeda was indeed responsible, this is > another stark reminder of the group＊s regeneration in Pakistan＊s > tribal areas. Al-Qaeda＊s senior leadership has returned to the > levels of power they enjoyed in Afghanistan before U.S. forces > toppled the Taliban, and Bhutto＊s death has to be considered a > major victory for them. There is also evidence that Bhutto＊s > assassination, much like the October attempt on her life, may have > been assisted by Islamic militants who have infiltrated Pakistan＊s > military and intelligence services. > > Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf has never risen to the occasion > in the face of danger. He has attempted to broker compromises even > following assassination attempts that targeted him. The Waziristan > accords, consummated in 2006, were one sign of how Musharraf has > attempted to negotiate away Pakistan＊s problem with Islamic > militancy: those accords essentially formalized al-Qaeda＊s safe > haven in the country＊s Waziristan region. In no way were those > accords an isolated event: Pakistan＊s further concessions in 2007 > included the Bajaur, Swat, and Mohmand tribal agencies. > > Bhutto＊s death also makes former prime minister Nawaz Sharif > Pakistan＊s top opposition figure. Sharif has attempted to appeal to > Islamic militants, arguing that Pakistan needs to pare down its > cooperation with the United States. Sharif has already capitalized > on Bhutto＊s death, visiting the hospital where she was declared > dead, blasting Musharraf for providing Bhutto with insufficient > security, and calling for a reunification of Bhutto＊s Pakistan > Peoples Party and his own Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz. > > Bhutto＊s assassination once again spotlights the need for the U.S. > to formulate a feasible Pakistan policy, something I have called for > previously. > > 〞 Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the vice president of research at the > Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and the author of My Year > Inside Radical Islam. > > > > Victor Davis Hanson > We don＊t know exactly who assassinated Ms. Bhutto, but, given the > infiltration of the Pakistani secret services by Islamic extremists, > it seems likely that al-Qaeda-like jihadists, with the deliberate > blind eye of the government, were responsible. Same old, same old in > the Middle East: The jihadists are cruel and crazy, the dictatorial > alternative is duplicitous and illegitimate, and the democratic > third way is weak and vulnerable. > > Pakistan is a nuclear dictatorship, with a thin Westernized elite > sitting atop a vast medieval Islamist badlands that it cannot > control. Today＊s events show that the very notion of a pro-Western > politician coming to power legitimately is unlikely for the > immediate future. > > Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, among others, have suggested that > it＊s about time to consider incursions into Pakistan to strike al- > Qaeda. That would be like putting a needle into a doughboy: The > problem is not a particular region, or a particular Pakistani > figure, but Pakistan itself, founded as an Islamic state, and by > nature prone to extremism. It is the most anti-American country in > the region and we should accept that and move on. > > Our relations were always based on the flawed idea its Islamic and > autocratic essence made it a good bulwark against communist Russia > and socialist India. But the world has changed, and we should too. > It is long past time to smile and curtail aid 〞 and quit arming it > with weapons that are more likely to be used against our friend > India as bin Laden. > > I would imagine once most of the ※reform§ candidates are killed or > cowered, the emboldened terrorist animals will turn on their > government feeders 〞 even as the Pakistani street somehow blames us. > > 〞 Victor Davis Hanson is a classicist and historian at the Hoover > Institution, Stanford University, and author, most recently, of A > War Like No Other: How the Athenians and Spartans Fought the > Peloponnesian War. > > > Mansoor Ijaz > She was a beautiful and idealistic young woman who came to Pakistan＊ > s rescue in 1988. Her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, encouraged her as > an up and coming politician to study the lives of history＊s great > women leaders, from Joan of Arc to Indira Ghandi, so she could > prepare to lead her tumultuous country. Benazir would become an > imperious, venal, and corrupt leader during her two terms in office, > bringing Pakistan to the brink of financial ruin on more than one > occasion. Her death now brings this teeming, nuclear-armed nation to > the brink of complete state failure. > > I knew Benazir well. I am often blamed by her supporters for having > helped bring her government down in 1996 by exposing her hypocrisy > and corruption in two Wall Street Journal oped pieces. We remained > in touch over the years after she went into exile, even developing a > grudging respect for each other over time. She was a terribly > conflicted person who deep in her heart wanted to save Pakistan from > its evils, but was unable to put her personal lifestyle choices > aside in doing so. And she 〞 God Bless her 〞 married the wrong man. > > I remember asking her in a meeting in Islamabad at the prime > minister＊s residence in early 1996 as I presented her with evidence > of her family＊s corruption why she didn＊t go and spend three or > four days a week living in the villages of Pakistan with its > suffering people so she could show her commitment to healing their > pain. Her answer was typically imperious 〞 ※prime ministers don＊t > do that＃§ > > But I firmly believe that she loved Pakistan, and for all her > faults, had returned there this time to turn a new page in its > troubled political history. We should remember her for her courage > to stand up in the face of incalculable odds against her to bring > some semblance of sanity to the disaster that Pakistan has become. > > Gen. Musharraf must immediately call for an independent > international investigation into her assassination, led by a blue > ribbon panel that determines the extent or not of complicity from > Pakistan＊s police and intelligence services. This is the most > critical decision he can make to avoid appearance of conflict to his > ongoing service as president, and to prevent Pakistan＊s descent > into civil war, or worse, an Islamist coup by army generals who view > this moment in Pakistan＊s history as their chance to seize the > reigns of power, and control of the country＊s formidable nuclear > arsenal. > > 〞 Mansoor Ijaz, a New York financier of Pakistani ancestry, jointly > authored a ceasefire plan between Muslim militants and Indian > security forces in Kashmir in 2000 and met with Prime Minister > Bhutto on more than a dozen occasions in Islamabad, Dubai, and > London since 1994. > > > Stanley Kurtz > Is Pakistan a failed state? Experts debated that question long > before today＊s events. Pakistan is certainly a tragic state, where > brilliant, accomplished, cosmopolitan moderns live in sometimes > uneasy association with a vast peasant heartland, and the fiercest > tribes in the Muslim world. Today Pakistan＊s unruly juxtapositions > lie raw and exposed. > > Does Bhutto＊s assassination portend the end of democracy, Sharif＊s > triumph, chaos, or civil war? An electoral triumph for Sharif, > Musharraf＊s bitter foe, the Islamists＊ strongest mainstream ally, > and no friend of democracy (whatever he now says, and whatever the > West now chooses to believe) seems unlikely. The election will > probably be called off, and for good reason. In any case, Pakistan > has never been a genuine liberal democracy, so on that score less > will change than meets the eye. > > As for chaos and civil war, Pakistan has already got a low-level > version of both. It＊s easy to see how the assassination of Bhutto > could worsen things, yet it＊s not entirely certain that it will. > One of the reasons Pakistan is called a ※failed state§ is that the > government has very little reach. Practically no-one pays taxes. In > the heartland and the tribal areas alike, life is governed by local > social forms that have little to do with the state. So while Bhutto＊ > s assassination could certainly set off demonstrations and > turbulence, it＊s also possible to imagine the vast majority of > Pakistani people coming to terms with it as a distant echo from a > state that has little effect on their lives. We just don＊t know. > > At a minimum, Pakistan＊s low-level civil war will go on. The > Taliban and al-Qaeda seem lately to be giving less attention to > Afghanistan and more attention to Pakistan itself. They would like > to sow chaos in Pakistan as a whole, expand their base there, and > perhaps use chaos to grab hold of some nuclear material. Will the > military clamp down, as it has with some success in Swat, or will > the army be paralyzed by its internal divisions, and by covert > sympathy for the Taliban? We just don＊t know. > > Pakistan remains a powder keg. Unlike Somalia, where there is no > educated and modernized class, and the state has been in total > collapse for years, Pakistan embodies all the strengths, and all the > weaknesses of modern Muslim social life. That is Pakistan＊s > tragedy, and our problem. > > 〞 Stanley Kurtz is a fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center > and has written extensively about Pakistan. > > > James S. Robbins > No one should be surprised that an assassin finally caught up with > Benazir Bhutto. People have been trying kill her since her return to > Pakistan. Yet she had a habit of waving to the crowd from the top > hatch of her secure vehicle. Anyone plotting to kill her would know > this. Early reports indicate that she was shot almost immediately on > emerging from the protection of the vehicle, so that suggests the > shooter was waiting for the expected opportunity. If you feel the > need to have an armored vehicle, why takes such foolish risks? > Bhutto either had a death wish or thought she was bullet proof. > > 〞 James S. Robbins is the director of the Intelligence Center at > Trinity Washington University, senior fellow for national-security > affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council, and author of Last > in Their Class: Custer, Picket and the Goats of West Point. Robbins > is also an NRO contributor. > > > Bill Roggio > It goes without saying the assassination of former Prime Minister > Benazir Bhutto less than two weeks before elections will have > disastrous consequences for Pakistani politics. Bhutto, as leader of > the Pakistani Peoples＊ Party (PPP), was the frontrunner to be the > next prime minister of Pakistan. Pervez Musharraf, who cemented his > position as President by usurping the constitution by declaring the > highly unpopular state of emergency in early November, will wrongly > be accused of being behind the assassination of Bhutto. The attack > on Bhutto＊s procession occurred in the military garrison city of > Rawalpindi, and was conducted with near-military precision. But > there should be little doubt that this was an attack by the Taliban, > al Qaeda, and sympathizers within the military and Inter Services > Intelligence. > > The U.S. invested a great deal of political capital trying to get > Bhutto back into Pakistan and involved in the political process. > Bhutto has vowed to fight the Taliban and al Qaeda in the tribal > regions and the settled districts of the Northwest Frontier > Province. She also said she would allow or further investigations of > A.Q. Khan＊s nuclear black market network. It is unclear who in the > PPP will serve as Bhutto＊s successor, and if this person has the > clout to carry out such policies. > > Musharraf, who has alienated much of the public, is now further > isolated from the people. Nawaz Sharif, who has been accused of > accepting bribes by none other than Osama bin Laden in the past and > leads the rival political party Pakistan Muslim League 〞 Nawaz, is > positioning himself as the next leader of Pakistan. Sharif, who has > been barred from running for office, is waging a slick campaign to > be seen as the only alternative to Musharraf. He was seen at Bhutto＊ > s bedside as she died at the hospital in Rawalpindi. > > 〞 Bill Roggio is the editor of The Long War Journal, and the > president of Public Multimedia Inc., a non-profit dedicated to > coverage of the war. > > > > Henry Sokolski > Among other things, Benazir Bhutto＊s assassination highlights the > futility of Washington＊s earlier quick-fix efforts to moderate > Pakistani politics by backing a Bhutto-Musharraf power sharing deal. > Such condominium was hardly in the cards and hopes otherwise ignored > the roots of Pakistani political instability, starting with the > military＊s active support of Muslim fundamentalists to help out in > Afghanistan and Kashmir. Also, the lack of secular politics that > extend much beyond cult worship (even Ms. Bhutto, insisted on being > name head of her political party ※for life§) has hardly helped. > Compound this with Saudi-funded Muslim fundamentalist schooling in > Pakistan and Washington＊s support of whomever has been in power in > Islamabad and you get the mess you＊ve got. > > Now, we need to reassure Pakistan＊s military that Washington won＊t > sell Pakistan out just to get strategically closer to New Delhi. A > good start here would be to stop pushing the Indian nuclear deal so > hard (it＊s stalled in India anyway). Encouraging Saudi Arabia to > stop funding fundamentalist schools in Pakistan would also help as > would backing the fortunes of Pakistan＊s tribal leaders and middle > class over the economic, religious, and political machinations of > Pakistan＊s military intelligence services. > > Certainly, stabilization, to say nothing of democratization of > Afghanistan requires a revived effort to achieve the same in > Pakistan and, then, there＊s Pakistan＊s nuclear weapons 〞 both > good causes to rethink how best to smarten up our support of our > Pakistani friends. > > 〞 Henry Sokolski is executive director of the Nonproliferation > Policy Education Center in Washington, D.C. > > http://article.nationalreview.com/? > q=YzY3MDY5YTJkMTliODQ1NjJhZDgxODliNWZjMTg0Yzc= > > > > Post message: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subscribe : [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Unsubscribe : [EMAIL PROTECTED] > List owner : [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Homepage : http://proletar.8m.com/ > Yahoo! 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