Spreading terror: From bin Laden to Facebook in Southeast Asia
>From Maria Ressa, Special to CNN
May 4, 2011 -- Updated 1118 GMT (1918 HKT)
Supporters of radical cleric Abu Bakar Bashir, who is currently on trial in
Jakarta on terrorism charges.
Supporters of radical cleric Abu Bakar Bashir, who is currently on trial in
Jakarta on terrorism charges.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
* Despite bin Laden's death al Qaeda's Southeast Asia affiliate will
continue to gain support, says Ressa
* Terror network of Jemaah Islamiyah still exists despite crackdown by
authorities
* Small cells capable of violent terrorist acts; recent plots foiled
Editor's note: Maria Ressa is CNN's former Jakarta bureau chief and author of
"Seeds of Terror: An Eyewitness Account of Al-Qaeda's Newest Center of
Operations in Southeast Asia." She worked as a journalist in Southeast Asia for
nearly 25 years and is the Author-in-Residence at the International Center for
Political Violence & Terrorism Research in Singapore.
(CNN) -- Osama bin Laden's death is a moral victory, but it may turn out to be
nothing more than that.
Over the past decade, he has been isolated and the capabilities of al Qaeda
degraded, but it's evolved into a social movement that continues to attract new
groups and new recruits.
Studies of social networks of al Qaeda and its Southeast Asian arm, Jemaah
Islamiyah (JI), show they continue to spread violent jihadi ideology like a
virus.
How does it spread?
Aside from the crucible of the Afghan training camps in the late 1980s, the
constant propaganda pumped out by al Qaeda's media arm and the real and
perceived injustice against Muslims used by radicals to recruit moderates,
there are other, more imperceptible influences.
More people are buying into the ideology of JI and its associated groups.
--Rohan Gunaratna, author 'Inside al Qaeda'
Social network theory offers the Three Degrees of Influence Rule defined in
numerous academic studies. Everything we say or do ripples through our social
network, creating an impact on our friends (one degree), our friends' friends
(two degrees), and even our friends' friends' friends (three degrees).
For example, if you're feeling lonely, there's a 54% chance your friend will
feel lonely; a 25% chance your friend's friend will feel lonely; and a 15%
chance your friend's friend's friend will feel lonely. Emotions like happiness
and hope, as well as smoking and even obesity can be traced and spread through
social networks.
If these can spread through social networks, why not the volatile mix that
leads to terrorism -- anger, fear, hatred, religious fervor? Mapping the social
networks of al Qaeda and JI show it does.
Both al Qaeda and JI operated the same way. They hijacked disparate groups,
trained and funded them and infected them with the jihadi virus that targeted
both their governments and the U.S.
Both groups used a top-down centralized command as well as bottom-up initiative
to spread the ideology and carry out attacks. Their zeal came from a blood
compact -- an evolving network of family and friends.
After 9/11 triggered a fierce reaction from law enforcement agencies around the
world, both al Qaeda and JI were affected the same way: their centralized
command structures collapsed and their operational capabilities were degraded.
Still, the old networks remain and continue to spread the jihadi virus.
Smaller, more ad-hoc and less professional cells carry out attacks without
central coordination.
In Southeast Asia, the possibility of retaliatory attacks from bin Laden's
death may be highest in Indonesia, the country with the world's largest Muslim
population. Since mid-March, a series of attacks and foiled plots show the JI
network still at work.
The jihadi virus is spreading into more moderate and mainstream communities.
What is next for al Qaeda?
New details about bin Laden raid
'I hope it is their names we speak'
RELATED TOPICS
* Osama bin Laden
* Al Qaeda
* Terrorism
* World Politics
* Indonesia
"The organizational structure of these terrorists," says Ansyaad M'bai, the
chief of Indonesia's National Counter-Terrorism Agency (BNPT), "originally
formed from the core members of JI, which broke into smaller units. This can be
seen through the nature of bombs, the style of assembly of the explosives they
use. This is the same group."
Nearly ten years after 9/11, the link between JI and al Qaeda continues. In
January, Pakistani police arrested JI leader Umar Patek (who had operated in
the Philippines since 2003) and his Filipino wife. They were arrested after
police trailed a known al Qaeda operative.
"Umar Patek maintained links with al Qaeda," says Rohan Gunaratna, author of
"Inside al Qaeda" and the head of Singapore's International Center for
Political Violence & Terrorism Research.
"This is a clear indication of the continuing partnership between al Qaeda and
JI."
The internet and mobile phone technology have helped to further decentralize
terror networks and spread the jihadi virus. More jihadi content is spreading
faster in the virtual world while police are finding online technical manuals
on bomb-making in real-world terrorist safe-houses.
"More people are buying into the ideology of JI and its associated groups,"
says Gunaratna.
"More individuals are politicized, radicalized and mobilized, and a very small
number of them will continue to carry out attacks."
Add to this mix the potent amplifying effect of social media. In mid-April, a
jihadist prepared a 23-page guide to "effectively post" on Facebook. (Indonesia
is the second largest Facebook-using nation in the world; the Philippines ranks
sixth globally).
What seems clear is that in both the virtual and real worlds, the jihadi virus
is spreading from al Qaeda and associated groups into more moderate and
mainstream communities.
Which brings us back to where we started: Osama bin Laden is dead, but the
jihadi virus is here to stay. The question now is how to track its mutations
and vaccinate the public against it.
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