http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1052/op9.htm

16 - 22 June 2011
Issue No. 1052

Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

Arab spring but no Arab summer?
The NATO-led attack on Libya is a textbook example of European and American 
imperialism, writes Jeremy Salt* 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The attack on Libya is a copy-book example of high imperialism -- gunboat 
diplomacy in the crudest fashion. Extraordinarily, only eight years after the 
US-led invasion of Iraq, the US and European governments are at it again. The 
door was opened for them by the "rebels", whom they have gladly accepted as the 
"transitional government", and the UN Security Council provided the cover as it 
has done on numerous other occasions. 

The restrictions included in Resolution 1973 were so loose as to amount to no 
restrictions at all. Basically, it was a mandate for the attacking governments 
to do what they liked, and this is just what they have been doing. In the name 
of protecting civilians, they have killed hundreds of civilians, and probably 
thousands of men in uniform. There have also been deliberate attempts to kill 
Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. In one of them, his son and three of his 
grandchildren were killed, the latter all infants and one only a few months 
old. 

The mother of one of the children, Aisha Gaddafi, has initiated legal 
proceedings in Brussels against those deemed to be responsible under the 
heading of war crimes. This was a deliberate attack on a suburban home in an 
attempt to kill the children's grandfather and not, as the liars at NATO 
headquarters said, an attack on a "command and control centre" unless they are 
talking about the kitchen where meals are prepared for the children and the 
bathroom where they are washed. 

Gaddafi only survived the "precision bombing" because he was out the back at 
the time. So eager were the propagandists that they began by claiming the 
children had not been killed because the coffin lids were closed. In fact, the 
bodies were blown to bits. The murder of these infants left the mainstream 
media unruffled. Only former US congresswoman Catherine McKinney seems to have 
taken the trouble of going to the house and describing what this precision 
bombing actually did. 

This is not a "NATO war". This is a war launched by the governments of the US, 
Britain and France. NATO, their cover, is a transnational mercenary 
organisation supplying troops on demand for their wars. Since the collapse of 
the Soviet Union, it has had no other role. So far, there has been no direct 
engagement because the attacking forces are hoping to finish off Gaddafi from 
the air. That way they won't have to put "boots on the ground". That way they 
won't take casualties, and that way public opinion at home won't be stirred 
into action. 

At the moment, they can bomb Gaddafi, but he can't bomb them. The government in 
Tripoli does not have the capacity to hit 10 Downing Street or the White House 
with a precision bomb, or to send attack helicopters to blow up government 
buildings inside the Washington Beltway. What would they say if it did? That 
this is outrageous? That you can't do this to us? And that is the whole point. 
We know that you can't do this to us, but we have the means and we are going to 
keep doing it to you for as long as it takes to destroy you.

Many civilians had already died when these foreign governments jumped in to 
prevent the "rebels" from being defeated and to protect civilians. Now, they 
themselves have killed hundreds. Ten days ago, the government in Tripoli put 
out a statement claiming that about 700 civilians had been killed in these 
American, French and British air attacks. Given the intensity of the daily 
bombings, there seems little reason to doubt the accuracy of this statement, 
and many more civilians have died since. 

These include 13 imams wiped out in an early morning missile attack on the town 
of Brega. Can you imagine the reaction if some crazy leader wiped out 13 
Christian clerics as they were gathering for morning prayer? But these leaders 
are not crazy: they are the leaders of what they themselves like to call the 
"free world," which apparently means free for them to do whatever they want. 
The victims include various civilians on duty at the Bab Al-Aziziya compound in 
Tripoli. It has been bombed time and time again. More than 30 people were 
killed in one attack which began in mid morning and did not end until after 
midnight. 

When the "defiant" Gaddafi said he was staying in Libya, dead or alive, they 
bombed it again. They have reached the point where they are bombing only 
rubble. The only point of this exercise is to terrorise the civilian population 
and show them that their leader cannot even defend his own capital.

The western media is covering up the number of civilians killed in these 
attacks and is showing almost nothing of the massive infrastructural damage. 
All we see are massive plumes of smoke on the horizon, or the skeleton of a 
burnt- out tank or armoured car. We don't see the ruins of the government 
ministries that have been attacked. There is very little questioning of what 
international law has to say about the war, or the numerous attempts to murder 
a head of state, as Gaddafi has to be regarded despite his formal lack of 
title. 

Gaddafi remains the only person to have looked for a negotiated way out of this 
conflict. He has made offers to sit down and talk directly to the "rebels". He 
has made offers through the African Union. It is significant that the UN 
secretary-general has made no attempt of his own to broker a peace. Every 
single offer made by Gaddafi has been rejected out of hand by the rebels and 
the governments keeping them on their feet. Of course, they don't want to talk 
to Gaddafi. They want to destroy him, just as British prime minister Anthony 
Eden wanted to destroy Gamal Abdel-Nasser in the Tripartite Aggression in 1956. 
The rebels are their stalking horse. 

At a time of savage cuts to social welfare, education and the funding of local 
councils, the British government has set aside one billion pounds for the 
overthrow of Gaddafi. The US economy is in even worse shape, but there's still 
plenty of cash in the pipeline for the wars on Afghanistan and Libya. As part 
of the attack on Libya, it has frozen $30 billion worth of Libyan investments 
in the US. Confiscated or expropriated would be better words than the anemic 
"frozen". European governments have dutifully followed suit, but with estimated 
gold bullion holdings of more than 143 tons, Gaddafi still has the means to 
continue their war indefinitely, as they cannot, unless they finish him off 
quickly. 

At a time of financial stringency, why are these governments spending so much 
money trying to destroy Gaddafi? Oil can safely be regarded as part of the 
answer. Libya has immense reserves, and while these governments were already 
getting a plentiful supply and being given generous concessions, nothing is 
ever enough for governments that like total control and even more bountiful 
profits. 

Then there is Gaddafi's maverick place in the international financial order. In 
Latin America, his friend, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, despised by the 
same people who despise Gaddafi, has overseen the formation of a cartel of 
governments refusing to have anything more to do with the IMF. Gaddafi does not 
want or need the IMF either. He has backed his anti-imperialist rhetoric over 
the years with plans to set up an African central bank, an African monetary 
fund and an African central investment agency. The prospect of an IMF-free zone 
in Africa is itself enough for western governments to want to get rid of him. 

Yet another reason is strategic location. Bases in Africa and the Indian Ocean 
are central to US military planning for the Middle East. Africom -- the central 
US military command -- is based at Djibouti. With the Fifth Fleet based at 
Bahrain, with an integrated defence system developed with Saudi Arabia and with 
the stockpiling arrangements long since in place as part of the US-Israel 
relationship, the US is also well placed inside the Middle East. Egypt has not 
quite been lost, yet it is unlikely to go back to where it once was, creating a 
vacancy along the North African coastline. Libya meets all the requirements, 
and in many ways it is better suited for the role than Egypt. 

The western governments are also homing in on Syria. For the US and Israel, the 
destruction of the country's Baathist government would be a strategic victory 
far surpassing the sidelining of Egypt through the 1979 Camp David Treaty. It 
would bring down the central arch in the strategic relationship between Iran, 
Syria and Hizbullah. It would mean the destruction of the common front standing 
in defence of Lebanon and the Palestinians.

The demands being made by the Syrian people for political reform are authentic 
and valid. At the same time, their demonstrations have been used as a cover by 
armed groups whose interest is not reform but the downfall of the regime. Their 
attacks on police and troops have largely been ignored by the western media. 
Only when they reached a crescendo with an all-out assault in and around the 
northern border town of Jisr Al-Shughur did it take notice. 

There, dozens of Syrian police, soldiers and civilians were killed by men armed 
with rocket- propelled grenade launchers as well as smaller weapons. According 
to reports in the Arab press, they were underground cells of the Syrian Muslim 
Brotherhood, which has been waiting its moment for revenge since the ruthless 
and very bloody crushing of its uprising in the Syrian city of Hama in 1982. 
While giving maximum publicity to the terrible murder and mutilation of Hamza 
Al-Khatib, the young boy picked up by Syrian security forces during a 
demonstration, the western media has ignored or dismissed the atrocities 
committed at Jisr Al-Shughur, including beheadings and the mutilation of 
bodies. 

A truckload of arms caught on the Syrian- Turkish border indicates that these 
groups of armed men are being helped from outside. The media has been quick to 
point the finger at Iran, when the most likely source is Iraq and the most 
likely beneficiary the armed gangs. Northern Iraq is awash with weapons, and it 
is a natural staging ground for subversive operations against Iran or Syria. It 
is unlikely that the downfall of the government in Syria will lead to a 
peaceful transition to democracy in the country. Even worse turmoil than we are 
now seeing is more likely, with the Muslim Brotherhood hunting down every last 
Baathist and Alawi.

Against the background of a long record of subversion, spying and assassination 
in virtually all Middle Eastern countries, outside forces are certain to be 
involved in the Syrian uprising. Syria is the visceral enemy of Israel and a 
long-term target of dirty tricks, assassinations and armed attacks, as well as 
decades of sanctions imposed by the US. Mossad and the CIA have agents 
everywhere, and they would not be doing their job if they were not trying to 
keep this pot on the boil. What a sweet victory it would be if in the name of 
reform the Baathist government could be destroyed.

The Saudis have their own reasons to help things along. They loathe and fear 
Shias of any description. Iran, Hizbullah and the so-called Alawi regime in 
Damascus are on the top of the list of their enemies. Smuggling arms across the 
border from Turkey or Iraq by one or more of these enemies of the Syrian regime 
would not be difficult and neither would seeding the demonstrations with 
provocateurs. Given all the circumstances, the best option would surely be for 
the Syrian government to be given time to put its reforms into effect. 

President Bashar Al-Assad is personally popular and seems well-intended, but he 
is trapped within an ossified political system. The protests were his 
opportunity to shake it up, but for those inside and outside Syria who want 
nothing less than the overthrow of the regime, time and the opportunity to 
prove that he is sincere are things that Al-Assad cannot be given.

Both Al-Assad and Gaddafi have been referred to the International Criminal 
Court (ICC) for investigation. The ICC is yet another weapon in the arsenal of 
western governments, taking its place alongside the UN Security Council. The US 
doesn't accept its jurisdiction over US nationals, but does not hesitate to use 
it against people it doesn't like. Without producing any evidence, the chief 
prosecutor is now publicly accusing Gaddafi of promoting mass rape. Did Gaddafi 
really promote mass rape, or will we only find out the truth when he has gone 
and the accusation has served its purpose, like the babies allegedly thrown out 
of their cribs by Iraqi soldiers in Kuwait in 1990 and the weapons of mass 
destruction in Iraq in 2003? 

The propaganda war is again raging, and the western media is again playing its 
part. With the exceptions of its coverage of the uprisings in Egypt and 
Tunisia, the bias in Al-Jazeera's reporting has been just as bad if not worse. 
Across the region, the west and its regional allies are working hard to stake 
out new positions that will enable them to control the Middle East as before. 
They want to drain, contain and divert the Arab revolutions, and they are using 
whatever tactics they think will work, including bribery in the form of 
economic and investment assistance, military attack and the support of 
movements which serve their interests and the suppression of those that don't. 

There is a very real danger that the events of 2011 will be remembered not for 
what was gained but for what was lost. The Arab spring is at risk of passing 
directly to an Arab winter, with no summer in between. 

* The writer is an associate professor of Middle Eastern history and politics 
at Bilkent University, Ankara.


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