Jim Stewart wrote on Tuesday, 2 March 1999 7:04
|Thanks Brian, and I agree Meg Lees on national TV endorsing the Liberals'
|tax reform disarmed the usual pre-election vacillation of many voters,
|although she could have lost enough primary votes to Labor to offset any
|extra Liberal seats from Democrat prefs.
|
<snip>
Meg Lees' GST tactic in the 1998 election was indeed damaging to the
Democrats' primary vote, 25 per cent of which disappeared, almost certainly
to Labor and the Greens. However, since the election of Democrat senators is
mostly about preferences, her negotiation of Liberal prefs ahead of the
Greens was a prime preoccupation. So too, of course, was the conspiracy to
deny preferences to the higher-polling One Nation.
After the election, I analysed primaries (as at October 3) and posted the
following :
"Averaged across the six States, the Democrats' Senate tally of 8 per cent
translates to a 25 per cent national downturn from their 10.77 percent in
1996. Only in the aberrant ACT election (with only 2 senators to elect)
did the celebrity Democrat candidate improve on the party's 1996 result.
"Even leader Meg Lees suffered a significant 15 per cent drop in her South
Australian tally. . ."
SOURCE: Aust Electoral Commission (percentage primary votes)
State 1996 1998 Swing
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
NSW 9.55 7.29 - 24%
Vic 10.87 10.04 - 7%
Qld 13.21 8.07 - 39%
SA 14.54 12.37 - 15%
Tas 7.12 3.97 - 44%
WA 9.35 6.58 -29%
States 10.77 8.05 -25%
ACT 10.20 17.24 +69%
(Note: the ACT results cannot be averaged into the State figures, since
the ACT election is of two senators while each State elects six senators.
The number of votes is also proportionally less representative.)
--Brian Jenkins
Email [EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.nettrek.com.au/~brian/#F
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