Fw: NRA Australian Advert Exposes theTruth

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----- Original Message ----- From: Ron Owen To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Monday, March 27, 2000 7:10 AM Subject: NRA Australian Advert Exposes theTruth   Firearm Owners Association of Australia     This is what the overseas media judge to be the truth of the NRA add matter.   Australian government's own stats on crime confirm NRA charges "By Jon E. Dougherty © 2000 WorldNetDaily.com   The controversy over whether or not the National Rifle Association used misleading crime statistics in an advertisement decrying Australia's restrictive gun laws has largely been settled by figures provided by the Australian government itself. It appears the government officials in the island continent who charged the NRA with distorting the country's crime figures for political gain owe the gun-rights group an apology.   The government has based its refutation of the NRA ads -- which say crime has increased Down Under since Australia's major gun ban took effect in 1996 -- mainly on the drop in the murder rate. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics website, murders have fallen from 312 in 1996 to 284 murders in 1998, after experiencing a slight increase in 1997, from 312 to 321.   However, almost every other form of crime in Australia has increased, sometimes dramatically, in the same time period:   For instance, since the introduction of Australia's sweeping gun bans, armed robberies rose a whopping 70 percent, from 6,256 in 1996 to 10,850 just two years later.   Unarmed robberies also rose by about 20 percent, from just over 10,100 to nearly 13,000 incidents.   In addition:   Attempted murders rose from 335 in 1996 to 382 in 1998   Manslaughter rose from 38 to 49   Assaults were up from 114,156 to 132,967   Sexual assaults rose slightly, from 14,542 to 14,568   Kidnapping and abductions climbed dramatically, from 480 in 1996 to 662 in 1998   Some other highlights from the 1998 Australian government crime statistics report:   Blackmail and extortion went from 268 cases a year to 298   "Unlawful entry with intent (breaking into a home or business) involving the taking of property" rose by 30,000 cases, from 313,902 shortly after the ban was passed to 343,256 cases in 1998   Other "unlawful entry" cases increased during the two-year period from 88,177 to 92,414   "Motor vehicle theft" increased by 8,658 reported cases, and "other theft" rose to 565,214 from 521,762   On Friday, the Sydney Morning Herald said Australian Prime Minister John Howard, who helped usher in the country's restrictive gun laws, leapt into the fray against the NRA, calling the gun rights group's advertisement a collection of "lies" and "distortions." "I think it disturbs me in the sense that it is beyond belief that an organization can get it so wrong," Howard said.   Howard added that "Australia introduced tough gun laws after the Port Arthur massacre because it did not want to end up with a gun culture like the U.S.," said the Herald, which also quoted the prime minister as saying that the "appalling" U.S. homicide rate was because America is "awash in guns."    Australia's Un truthful politicians have again been exposed to the world.   America Awash with Guns But Safer For It   In the data produced by James Wright and John Lott in their studies. Wright found: * 81% of criminals agreed the "smart criminal" will try to find.out if a potential victim is armed. * 74% felt that burglars avoided occupied dwellings for fearof being shot. * 80% of "handgun predators" had encountered armed citizens. * 40% did not commit a specific crime for fear that the victim was armed. * 34% of "handgun predators" were scared off or shot at by armed victims. * 57% felt that the typical criminal feared being shot by citizens more than he feared being shot by police. * 82% agreed that "gun laws only affect law-abiding citizens; criminals will always be able to get guns." "The Armed Criminal in America: A Survey of Incarcerated Felons," by James Wright and Peter Rossi, U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice, SuDoc# J 28.24/3: C.86 (1985). The above study was included in their book "Armed and Considered Dangerous : A Survey of Felons and Their Firearms (Social Institutions and Social Change)"   This book is available from Amazon.com. and Lott found: "If those states without right-to-carry concealed gun provisions had adopted them in 1992, county- and state-level data indicate that approximately 1,500 murders would have been avoided yearly. Similarly, we predict that rapes would have declined by over 4,000, robbery by over 11,000, and aggravated assaults by over 60,000. We also find criminals substituting into property crimes involving stealth, where the probability of contact between the criminal and the victim is minimal. Further, higher arrest and conviction rates consistently reduce crime. The estimated annual gain from all remaining states adopting these laws was at least $5.74 billion in 1992. The annual social benefit from an additional concealed handgun permit is as high as $5,000." Lott also found that if you increase the number of firearms owned by private individuals by 1 percent and you can expect to see a DECREASE in aggragate violent crime of 4.1%.Specifically, murder goes down 3.3 %, aggravated assault down 4.3%, robbery down 4.3%, burglary down 1.6%, Larceny down 1.3%, and auto theft down 3.2%. The only catagory of crime that does not benefit from additional gun ownership rates is rape, which is unchanged. The total costs of crime that victims are saved for EACH 1% INCREASE in gun ownership is $3.1 Billion. Source:  "Crime, Deterence and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns," John Lott and David Mustard, http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JLS/lott.pdf  It has been republished in book format as "More Guns, Less Crime", University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL 1998, ISBN 0-226-49363-6. Lott's study correctly predicts our  Australian experience:  Reduce the number of firearms and your crime rates increase, even though there are significant cultural differences between the two countries.   Wright's study explains why. "Empiricle evidence provided by our Justice Department backs this up: A criminal has a greater chance of being shot AND the victim has a lowered chance of being injured, if firearms are available to the victim.  And in 70% of the crimes, the victim was bettered armed than the offender.  That is why Lott also predicts that an increase in gun ownership will decrease violent crime. Australia's increased crime rate could have been predicted using US data and studies, BECAUSE human nature is universal.  Whether the predator is looking for money for his next fix, or for his groceries, the criminal will always choose a soft target over a hard target (a victim who is armed), because even a heroin addict doesn't want to be shot. And it doesn't matter if the criminal lives in Melborne or Phoenix, AZ.  Except in Melborne your victims are guaranteed to be unarmed, while in Arizona, a significant percentage of victims are armed, and carrying sidearms. As for the NRA, they are exactly on target when they claim: (1) Australia's overall crime rate has gone up, (2) it started when your National Firearms Agreement was implemented, and (3) and it is indicative of the failure of your gun control laws. Your data at the ABS and AIC tells the same story. If a theory predicts an increase in your violent crime rate, and your violent crime rates goes up, then I would suggest you look into the basis for that theory and stop calling people you disagree with "Idiots"   Even if it is the "hated" NRA. The causation of Australia's increase in violent crime IS our National Firearms Agreement.  Violent crime in Australia will continue to increase.  It will increase even more as our criminals continue to obtain firearms via the black market, exactly for the reason that Wright finds:  The deterrents America has, Australia has not, not since our Government collected 650,000 guns from our citizens.   For further facts and figures contact Ron Owen.