----- Original Message -----
From: Malcolm Cadman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Re: [ql-users] UK General Election
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>
> Without revealing too many secrets :-) how does it work ?
>
> Are you saying that the user is able to input new political data and get
> different forecasts out ?
>
Yes, the best way to check is download and see.
Basically the program is for psephologists who just love playing with
election results. Translating opinion polls into seats is as Peter Snow says
"just a bit of fun". The main purpose is to analyse political trends. For
example, after the last election I suggested that you should watch the
Scottish Nationalists as they could make spectacular gains. (And that was
before devolution.) Also interesting to watch the Liberal Democrats. Their
vote has fallen, but number of seats has risen indicating that they are
consolidating their position in some areas. You can identify them through
the program. Hard to believe with present majorities, but if both the
Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cymru strengthen their position Labout could
become vulnerable over 5 - 10 years. And how near are/were the Conservatives
to meltdown? These are statistical, not political, predictions.
State Secrets involved? No. The non-graphical part of the program was
originally written for the 1983 election on a 48K Spectrum, so everything
had to be simple. (BTW the prediction then was almost no certain future for
the SDP, or at least not on the aims they had set themselves.)
1997 Result Lab 46% Con 33% LDe 18% Nat 3%
2001 Poll Lab 47% Con 32% LDe 15% Nat 7%
For each constituency Lab Vote 2001= (Lab vote 1997*47)/46
Con Vote 2001=(Con vote 1997*32)/33 etc.
Can be faulted statistically and takes no account of regional
trends,tactical voting, minor parties, Northern Ireland etc., but in
practice holds up well against more sophisticated calculations. Colin
Baskett's revue in QUANTA magazine gave an excellent assessment of the
program's strengths and weaknesses.
Geoff Wicks
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://members.tripod.co.uk/geoffwicks/election.htm
