Herein I foolishly attempt to determine whether BLAWN or BRAWN is really better, and try to understand Quackle output. At the end I put my Wish List so maybe scroll to that if you are hurrying here.
Some possibly interesting info: WORD COUNT Beyond length 2 and 3, there are more words with R,U in them than with N,U in them. >From Zyzzyva searches Length, RU* anagrams, NU* anagrams: 3, 16, 18 4, 136, 105 5, 471, 336 6, 1230, 955 7, 2519, 2051 8, 3683, 3209 Total, 24378, 23851 (total is length 2-15) However this doesn't consider the average score of the words, or probabilities - only counts them VOLATILITY BLAWN has no hooks or extensions BRAWL has -ED, -ER, -ERS, -IE, -IER, -IEST, -ING, -S, -Y, OUT-, OUT-ED, OUT-ING, OUT-S SIMULATION By Quackle simulating 4 plies for 10,011 iterations there is just a tiny difference in how good the plays are but I want to look at what happens on each ply ... 8D BRAWL 1.. (26 [sd 0]) (36.0856 [sd 24.7586]) 2.. (35.8721 [sd 22.0508]) (41.2835 [sd 23.9896]) 3.. (40.1245 [sd 23.4687]) a.. Residual: -0.723356 (sd 12.8543) b.. Spread: 24.5932 (sd 43.8822) c.. Valuation: 23.9042 d.. Bogowin%: 52.1581% 8D BLAWN 1.. (26 [sd 0]) (34.9355 [sd 24.4112]) 2.. (34.0318 [sd 21.7761]) (39.6406 [sd 23.7178]) 3.. (39.0373 [sd 23.5788]) a.. Residual: -0.525067 (sd 13.025) b.. Spread: 24.5902 (sd 43.4319) c.. Valuation: 23.9679 d.. Bogowin%: 52.2026% COMPARISON (leaving out the SD) 8D BLAWN (UR) - 8D BRAWL (UN) 1. 0 (-1.1503) The two scores are the same (26) With BLAWN on the board opponent scores 1.15 less 2. -1.8403 (-1.6429) With BLAWN and UR I score 1.8 less with my 2nd play after my opponent's reply My opponent also scores 1.6 points less on his 2nd play after BLAWN 3. -1.0872 With BLAWN and UR I score 1.09 less on my third play Conclusion: For this simulation the bogowin and the evaluation tell me either play is equally good 3 ply simulation is also interesting. The bogowin gives a different indication than the valuation. CONCLUSION Here would be my wish list for Quackle after this: * A listing of the top 10 words at each step in the simulation. (Or I could log to a file and analyze it.) * A way to compare two plays side by side instead of having to subtract. * More detail on the 'bogowin'. Now it's an estimate, right? But what is it based on? It seems like a histogram would be more enlightening for simulations in the beginning and middle game. I could babble about the endgame but I don't know what it's currently doing so I'll hold back on that Kevin Leeds.
