--- In [email protected], Russell Honeybun <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> 
> The 6 point difference isn't due to triple-triples,
> it's just due to random bonuses played.  At most 1000
> sims would have been processed, which is <1% of the
> required sims to produce results with any certainty.

This doesn't square with my general expectations about simulation 
accuracy. A 1000-trial simulation that runs from the start of a game to 
the finish should have a standard error of maybe 3 points. This is a 
much shorter simulation, so I am thinking the standard error is maybe 
1.5 points. A difference of 6 points is certainly significant.

It is possible that the simulation is using many fewer trials, or the 
variances are much higher than typical. But I would bet that Quackle 
has seen something.

Brian

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