--- In [email protected], Russell Honeybun <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > The 6 point difference isn't due to triple-triples, > it's just due to random bonuses played. At most 1000 > sims would have been processed, which is <1% of the > required sims to produce results with any certainty.
This doesn't square with my general expectations about simulation accuracy. A 1000-trial simulation that runs from the start of a game to the finish should have a standard error of maybe 3 points. This is a much shorter simulation, so I am thinking the standard error is maybe 1.5 points. A difference of 6 points is certainly significant. It is possible that the simulation is using many fewer trials, or the variances are much higher than typical. But I would bet that Quackle has seen something. Brian
