I told you so. // Lennart
On Tue, Jul 6, 2010 at 12:03 PM, <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > Mort Zuckerman: Obama Is Barely Treading Water The president's problem is > simple: the economy and jobs > > By *Mortimer B. > Zuckerman*<http://politics.usnews.com/Topics/tag/Author/z/mortimer_zuckerman/index.html> > > Posted: July 2, 2010 > > The hope that fired up the election of Barack Obama has flickered out, > leaving a national mood of despair and disappointment. Americans are > dispirited over how wrong things are and uncertain they can be made right > again. Hope may have been a quick breakfast, but it has proved a poor > supper. A year and a half ago Obama was walking on water. Today he is barely > treading water. Then, his soaring rhetoric enraptured the nation. Today, his > speeches cannot lift him past a 45 percent approval rating. > > > There is a widespread feeling that the government doesn't work, that it is > incapable of solving America's problems. Americans are fed up with > Washington, fed up with Wall Street, fed up with the necessary but > ill-conceived stimulus program, fed up with the misdirected healthcare > program, and with pretty much everything else. They are outraged and feel > that the system is not a level playing field, but is tilted against them. > The millions of unemployed feel abandoned by the president, by the > Democratic Congress, and by the Republicans. > > The American people wanted change, and who could blame them? But now there > is no change they can believe in. Sixty-two percent believe we are headed in > the wrong direction—a record during this administration. All the polls > indicate that anti-Washington, anti-incumbent sentiment is greater than it > has been in many years. For the first time, Obama's disapproval rating has > topped his approval rating. In a recent CBS News poll, there is a meager 15 > percent approval rating for Congress. In all polls, voters who call > themselves independents have swung against the administration and against > incumbents. > > Even some in Obama's base have turned, with 17 percent of Democrats > disapproving of his job performance. Even more telling is the excitement > gap. Only 44 percent of those who voted for him express high interest in > this year's elections. That's a 38-point drop from 2008. By contrast, 71 > percent of those who voted Republican last time express high interest in the > midterm elections, above the level at this stage in 2008. And these are the > people who vote. > > Republicans are benefiting not because they have a credible or popular > program—they don't—but because they are not Democrats. In a recent Wall > Street Journal/NBC poll, nearly two thirds of those who favor Republican > control of Congress say they are motivated primarily by opposition to Obama > and Democratic policy. Disapproval of Congress is so widespread, a recent > Gallup poll suggests, that by a margin of almost two to one, Americans would > rather vote for a candidate with no experience than for an incumbent. Throw > the bums out is the mood. How could this have happened so quickly? > > The fundamental problem is starkly simple: jobs and the deepening fear > among the public that the American dream is vanishing before their eyes. The > economy's erratic improvement has helped Wall Street but has brought little > support to Main Street. Some 6.8 million people have been unemployed in the > last year for six months or longer. Their valuable skills are at risk, > affecting their economic productivity for years to come. Add to this > despairing army the large number of those only partially employed and those > who have given up their search for work, and we have cumulative totals in > the tens of millions. > > Many people who joined the middle class, especially those who joined in the > last few years, have now fallen back. It's not over yet. Millions cannot > make minimum payments on their credit cards, or are in default or > foreclosure on their mortgages, or are on food stamps. Well over 100,000 > people file for bankruptcy every month. Some 3 million homeowners are > estimated to face foreclosure this year, on top of 2.8 million last year. > Millions of homes are located next to or near a foreclosed home, and it is > the latter that may determine the price of all the homes on the street. > There have been dramatically sharp declines in home equity, representing > cumulative losses in the trillions of dollars in what has long been the > largest asset on the average American family's balance sheet. Most of those > who lost their homes are hard-working, middle-class Americans who had lost > their jobs. Now many have to use credit cards to pay for essentials and make > ends meet, and they are running out of credit. Another $5 trillion has been > lost from pensions and savings. > > But it is jobs that have long represented the stairway to upward mobility > in America. For a long time, it was feared they were vulnerable to offshore > competition (and indeed still are), but now the erosion is from economic > decline at home. What happens as those domestic opportunities recede? > Middle-class families fear they have become downwardly mobile and have not > hit the bottom yet. The financial security that was once based on home > equity and a pension has been swept away. > > In a survey just released, the Pew Research Center explored the recession's > impact on households and how they are changing their spending and saving > behavior. Nearly half the adults polled intend to boost their savings, cut > their discretionary budgets, and cut their debt loads. The report concludes > that the present enforced frugality will outlast the recession and its > overhang. Fully 60 percent of those ages 50 to 61 say they may delay > retirement. What does that mean for the young would-be employees entering > the labor force over the next few years? > > The administration's stimulus program, because of the way Congress put it > together, has created far fewer jobs than anyone expected given the huge > price tag of almost $800 billion. It was supposed to constrain unemployment > at 8 percent, but the recession took the rate way above that and in the > process humbled the Obama presidency. Some 25 million jobless or > underemployed people now wish to work full time, but few companies are ready > to hire. No speech is going to change that. > > Little wonder there has been a gradual public disillusionment. Little > wonder people have come alive to the issue of excess spending with > entitlements out of control as far as the eye can see. The hope was that > Obama would focus on the economy and jobs. That was the number one issue for > the public—not healthcare. Yet the president spent almost a year on a > healthcare bill. Eighty-five percent in one poll thought the great > healthcare crisis was about cost. It was and is, but the president's bill > was about extending coverage. It did nothing about the first concern and > focused mostly on the second. Even worse, to win its approval he accepted > the kind of scratch-my-back deal-making that suggests corruption in the > political process. And as a result, Obama's promise to change "politics as > usual" disappeared. > > The president failed to communicate the value of what he wants to > communicate. To a significant number of Americans, what came across was a > new president trying to do too much in a hurry and, at the same time, > radically change the equation of American life in favor of too much > government. This feeling is intensified by Obama's emotional distance from > the public. He conveys a coolness and detachment that limits the number of > people who feel connected to him. > > Americans today strongly support a pro-growth economic agenda that includes > fiscal discipline, limited government, and deficit reduction. They fear the > country is coming apart, while the novelty of Obama has worn off, along with > the power of his position as the non-Bush. His decline in popularity has > emboldened the opposition to try to block him at every turn. > > Historically, presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent—Obama is at > 45—lose an average of 41 House seats in midterm elections. This year, that > would return the House of Representatives to Republican control. The > Democrats will suffer disproportionately from a climate in which so many > Americans are either dissatisfied or angry with the government, for > Democrats are in the large majority in both houses and have to defend many > more districts than Republicans. In any election year, voters' feelings > typically settle in by June. But now they are being further hardened by the > loose regulation that preceded the poisonous oil spill—and the tardy > government response. > > The promise of economic health that might salvage industries and jobs, and > provide a safety net, has proved illusory. The support for cutting spending > and cutting the deficit reflects in part the fact that the American public > feels the Obama-Congress spending program has not worked. As for the > healthcare reform bill, the most recent Rasmussen survey indicates that 52 > percent of the electorate supports repeal of the measure—42 percent of them > strongly. > > It is clear that the magical moment of Obama's campaign conveyed a spell > that is now broken in the context of the growing public disillusionment. > Obama's rise has been spectacular, but so too has been his fall. > > > Copyright © 2010 U.S.News & World Report > > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community < > [email protected]> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org > -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
