New Post-Kaiser-Harvard
poll highlights Democrats' problem with senior voters
By Dan Balz and
Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 13, 2010; 8:19 PM
President Obama and his party have been lavishing attention on young voters,
investing millions in an effort to reenergize a group that
helped elect him two years ago. Obama talked recently to
Rolling Stone, and he met Tuesday with students at George Washington University. On Thursday,
he plans to appear at a "youth town hall" on MTV.
But a similar investment in
older voters - especially those not particularly motivated
to go to the polls - might have been just as valuable.
Among seniors who say that they
are very interested in the upcoming election, 51 percent
prefer to see Republicans in control of the next Congress
while 40 percent say they want Democrats in charge. Among
all other seniors, it's about the reverse: 51 percent say
they want Democrats to control Congress and 37 percent say
Republicans.
The findings
come from a major survey conducted by The Washington
Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard
University. The survey measured attitudes about the
federal government and included some questions about the
upcoming elections.
The findings
show a generational divide working against the Democrats
this fall. If the midterms are in part a referendum on the size, scope and
effectiveness of the federal government, older voters
appear poised to deliver a rebuke to the Obama
administration.
Older voters - Democrats,
Republicans or independents - are more pessimistic in
their assessments of Washington's performance than are
younger voters. Based on historical voting patterns, they
are also more likely to turn out in November - a
potentially toxic combination for the Democrats.
Older voters say the federal
government is not focused on the right priorities. They
think Washington is working less well these days that it
did in the past.
Three in 10 older voters give
the government a failing grade, compared with 8 percent of
voters younger than 30. Older voters also are much harsher
in their judgments than they were a decade ago, when just
more than one in 10 gave Washington an F.
On the economy, the issue that
dominates the election, Obama also needs to make a more
persuasive case than he has with some older voters.
Majorities of Democrats of all ages give Obama credit for
helping to improve the economy. But older Republicans and,
crucially, older independents are more likely than their
younger counterparts to say the administration has made
things worse.
Those are some of the
differences between older and younger voters. But equally
important are the views of those older voters who are
paying close attention to this election compared to older
voters who are not.
Fully 40 percent of seniors who
are most interested in the campaign say the federal
government has a big and negative effect on their lives.
That's about double the proportion of the older voters who
are not so tuned in. More than half of these interested
older voters say the federal government threatens their
personal rights and freedom, twice the percentage of those
who aren't so interested.
Finally, older voters who say
they're very interested in the election are significantly
more focused on the deficit than are other seniors. Just
more than three in five say avoiding a big deficit is more
important than spending more money to create jobs.
The reason this matters so much
is the significant role that older voters play in midterm
elections. Four years ago, seniors made up 19 percent of
the midterm electorate. That fell to 15 percent of the
electorate in 2008 as more younger and middle-aged voters
came out.
That difference,
however, was typical, according to exit polls. Since 1980, the share of the
electorate 65 and older was an average of five percentage
points higher at each midterm than at the presidential
election preceding it.
A separate analysis issued
Tuesday by AARP, which lobbies on behalf of seniors,
concluded that the share of the electorate older than 45
has been growing as the population ages. The study says
the gap between the share of voters older and younger than
45 has been growing and estimates that almost two in three
voters next month will be older than 45.
Shaping the electorate is an
important part of midterm election strategy, which is why
the president's team is so focused on those 2008
first-time or newer voters younger than 30. Team members
know that by boosting turnout among these voters somewhat
higher than normal in a midterm, they could save House and
Senate seats. But they may be pushing a rock uphill, given
the normal generational swings in midterms.
Where this could have its
biggest impact is in states with competitive races that
also have a higher share of older voters.
One of those is
Florida, where Republicans are looking to hold onto a
Senate seat, avoid a Democratic pickup of the governor's
mansion and have targeted four Democratic-held House
seats. Another is Pennsylvania, where Republicans could
pick up a Senate seat, the governor's mansion and where
eight Democratic House seats are in play compared with
just one GOP-held seat.
For the past two
elections, older voters split their votes almost evenly
between Republicans and Democrats in House contests, and
they voted for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by an
eight-point margin in 2008. Unless Obama can alter the
direction of this election, older voters appear likely to
tip toward the Republicans this year.
