This uprising doesn't seem to have an Islamist base; rather it is an
anti-Mubarak base.  A common theme, value if you will, is the freedom to
grow and prosper economically.  The upward mobility of Egyptians seems to
have been thwarted by Mubarak's rule.  Underlying it all seems to be
Egyptian patriotism. 

Something will have to fill the vacuum when Mubarak is gone, which I predict
will be soon.  It will be interesting to watch.  Will the better organized
Islamists fill the gap, or will more of a patriotic economy/jobs coalition
form?  Despite anti-American sentiment in the region, will the dream of
economic and American-like freedoms take hold if a fair election takes
place?

Of course, no one knows the answers.

During my wife's residency we had a couple of Egyptian friends.  One was an
Egyptian Christian and one was a local doc who was an Egyptian (weak)
Muslim.  I was always struck by their patriotism.  Despite their
reservations about the current government they were proud to be Egyptian.

Chris 



-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Dr. Ernie Prabhakar
Sent: Saturday, January 29, 2011 9:01 AM
To: [email protected]
Cc: [email protected]; [email protected]
Subject: Re: [RC] Uprising in Egypt and other lands

Hi Billy,

My best guess is that the Islamists will dominate in the short term, simply
because they're better organized. They'll probably play the integrity and
traditional values card, and tone down the anti-American rhetoric because
they need our money.

Medium term, they'll overplay their hand and generate a reaction from the
more secular factions. 

But what happens then is deeply unclear, as I don't see a coherent moral
center for forming a new democracy. The best I can hope for is an
enlightened Singaporean style authoritarian democracy, if that makes sense. 

Wonder how the futures markets are playing bets. 

Chris: communication helps spread facts, which can tear town tyranny.  But
Egypt needs a way to spread -values- in order to build something in it's
place. Right now, I fear the Islamists have a de facto monopoly on those...

E
Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 29, 2011, at 2:15, [email protected] wrote:

> Islamist             =   anyone's guess how it would turn out,  but even a
"moderate" Islamic state
>                              and all hell could break out in the region
My best guess, if it goes
>                              Islamist, however it started,  it would  be
anything but moderate
>                              in approximately a year.The two Islamist
factions are both
>                              extremist by anyone's standards, one only
somewhat less
>                              than the other. If there is a "moderate"
Islamist group
>                              so far it is very well hidden.
>  

-- 
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
<[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org


-- 
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community 
<[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org

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