from the site : The Technium
_The Futurist's Dilemma_
(http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2011/08/the_futurists_d.php)
In....1964 [ during ] the BBC Horizon show, Arthur C. Clarke [ made ] a
fairly precise prediction, but one that is only half right. "We'll no longer
commute in cities," he says, "we'll communicate instead." He also says, "I
am perfectly serious when I suggest that you'll be able to call a man and
not know where he is, whether he is in Tahiti or Bali or London." He got that
part right, with cell phones everywhere, but on average we still do
commute in cities.
However it is the preamble to his prediction, where he hedges his bets,
that I think he is the most insightful. Clarke says that if you find a
prediction reasonable, than it is probably wrong, because the future is not
reasonable; it is fantastic! But if you could return from the future with the
exact truth about what will happen, no one would believe you because the
future is too fantastic! By fantastic he means issuing from the realm of
fantasy
and the imagination -- beyond what we expect.
This is the futurist's dilemma: Any believable prediction will be wrong.
Any correct prediction will be unbelievable. Either way, a futurist can't
win. He is either dismissed or wrong.
Except if he hits that razor's edge between the two realms, right on the
cusp between plausibility and fantasy, where it is almost true in the
improbable future. This is the sweet spot that science fiction authors aim
for.
Occasionally one hits it. Like Arthur C. Clarke.
Getting it right is very, very difficult. Most people, particularly most
smart people, even most science fiction authors, will err on the side of not
being fantastical enough. Because absolutely no one wants to be dismissed.
What's the point of making a prediction if no one is listening? So 99% of
future predictions will fall short of the necessary unreasonableness for a
correct prediction.
_27 August 2011_
(http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2011/08/the_futurists_d.php)
---------------------------------------------
from the site : Sentient Developments
August 19, 2011
On the pernicious de-radicalization of the radical future
Over the past several years a good number of "futurists" and all-out
naysayers have systematically worked to undermine and dismiss the potential
for
radical change to occur in the not-too-distant future. While I've always
been more a fan of concepts than time-lines, there is little doubt in my mind
that a number of disruptive technologies that have been predicted in the
past few decades will eventually come to fruition.
But it's suddenly become very fashionable to poo-poo or sweep-aside the
pending impacts of such things as the looming robotics and manufacturing
revolutions, the rise of super artificial intelligence, or the migration of
humans to a postbiological form. My best guesses as to why include the
arrogance of the now (i.e. "we currently live at the most special of times and
things will never change too significantly"), distraction (i.e. "there are
other more important issues that require our attention"), fear, denial, weak
imaginations, and just plain ignorance.
Here's a quick overview of what's coming down the pipe—developments that
will forever alter what we currently think of as normalcy and the human
condition:
* Artificial superintelligence: Recursively self-improving _expert
systems_
(http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2011/06/hear-that-its-singularity-coming.html)
endowed with significantly _greater-than-human intelligence_
(http://www.nickbostrom.com/superintelligence.html) , capacity, and reach;
the end of human primacy on the planet; an _extinction_
(http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html) _risk_
(http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Paperclip_maximizer) and _potential
existential paradigm changer_
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_artificial_intelligence) .
* Molecular nanotechnology: Manufacturing and materials construction
at the molecular scale; the complete re-thinking of engineering and
manufacturing; the rise of _molecular assemblers_
(http://www.molecularassembler.com/) (i.e. "replicators" or "fabricators")
and the _end of scarcity_
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_scarcity) ; the advent of _molecular-scale
robotics_ (http://www-lmr.usc.edu/~lmr/publications/nanorobotics/) ; the
threat and promise of _self-replication_
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine) ; and a serious
existential risk.
* Robotics revolution: _Hyper-automation_
(http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v18/n1/full/scientificamerican0208-12sp.html)
and
_massive unemployment_ (http://www.wired.com/techbiz/media/news/2003/08/59882)
; the grim potential for _robotic warfare_
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_robot) /terrorism and the rise of
_machine ethics_
(http://moralmachines.blogspot.com/) ; the unpredictable impacts of the
convergence of
robotics with artificial intelligence; robots that can self-replicate, swarm,
assemble, create emergent effects, self-organize, and repair; a potential
existential risk.
* The ongoing biotechnological revolution: _Enhanced and modified
humans_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism) (i.e. cyborgs,
genetically altered humans, postbiological beings), _indefinite lifespans_
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indefinite_lifespan) ; _regenerative medicine_
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regenerative_medicine) ; advanced
psychopharmaceuticals; the ongoing diminishment of corporeal importance
(including possible
_mind transfers_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uploaded_consciousness) ) and
extended personhood; _transgenics_
(http://users.rcn.com/jkimball.ma.ultranet/BiologyPages/T/TransgenicAnimals.html)
and _animal enhancement_
(http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2011/07/ethics-of-animal-enhancement.html)
.
* The ongoing communications revolution: _Noosphere_
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noosphere) /_global brain_
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_brain) (where human minds are interlinked
with our communications
technology and the internet).
* The political and sociological impacts of these disruptive
technologies: The demise of privacy and the rise of the surveillance state;
_the
further diminishment of civil liberties and the onset of
neo-authoritarianism_
(http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2008/12/future-risks-and-challenge-to-democracy.html)
.
* Megascale engineering: Assuming humanity will survive this far: The
graduation of humanity to _Kardashev I and Kardashev II civilizations_
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale) through the advent of such
things as the _Dyson Sphere_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) ,
_Jupiter Brain_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jupiter_brain#Jupiter_brain) and
_Matrioshka Brain_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrioshka_brain) ; the
onset of _technogainism_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technogaianism) ,
remedial ecology and the reworking of Earth's entire ecosystem (including
_weather control_
(http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2010/09/toth-fejel-politics-and-ethics-of.html)
); the permanent retiring of Darwinian processes on
the planet.
So, just keep on thinking that the future is going to be more of the same.
--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
<[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
