Actually, the futures he talks about are what -I- consider naive linear extrapolations of present trends.
I do not dismiss them as too radical, but too sterile. The most interest innovations in the last century have really been about changing how humans relate to each other. Who has the courage to re-imagine that future? E Sent from my iPhone On Sep 5, 2011, at 13:51, [email protected] wrote: > > from the site : The Technium > > The Futurist's Dilemma > > In....1964 [ during ] the BBC Horizon show, Arthur C. Clarke [ made ] a > fairly precise prediction, but one that is only half right. "We'll no longer > commute in cities," he says, "we'll communicate instead." He also says, "I am > perfectly serious when I suggest that you'll be able to call a man and not > know where he is, whether he is in Tahiti or Bali or London." He got that > part right, with cell phones everywhere, but on average we still do commute > in cities. > However it is the preamble to his prediction, where he hedges his bets, that > I think he is the most insightful. Clarke says that if you find a prediction > reasonable, than it is probably wrong, because the future is not reasonable; > it is fantastic! But if you could return from the future with the exact > truth about what will happen, no one would believe you because the future is > too fantastic! By fantastic he means issuing from the realm of fantasy and > the imagination -- beyond what we expect. > > This is the futurist's dilemma: Any believable prediction will be wrong. Any > correct prediction will be unbelievable. Either way, a futurist can't win. He > is either dismissed or wrong. > > Except if he hits that razor's edge between the two realms, right on the cusp > between plausibility and fantasy, where it is almost true in the improbable > future. This is the sweet spot that science fiction authors aim for. > Occasionally one hits it. Like Arthur C. Clarke. > > Getting it right is very, very difficult. Most people, particularly most > smart people, even most science fiction authors, will err on the side of not > being fantastical enough. Because absolutely no one wants to be dismissed. > What's the point of making a prediction if no one is listening? So 99% of > future predictions will fall short of the necessary unreasonableness for a > correct prediction. > > 27 August 2011 > > --------------------------------------------- > > from the site : Sentient Developments > August 19, 2011 > > On the pernicious de-radicalization of the radical future > > Over the past several years a good number of "futurists" and all-out > naysayers have systematically worked to undermine and dismiss the potential > for radical change to occur in the not-too-distant future. While I've always > been more a fan of concepts than time-lines, there is little doubt in my mind > that a number of disruptive technologies that have been predicted in the past > few decades will eventually come to fruition. > > But it's suddenly become very fashionable to poo-poo or sweep-aside the > pending impacts of such things as the looming robotics and manufacturing > revolutions, the rise of super artificial intelligence, or the migration of > humans to a postbiological form. My best guesses as to why include the > arrogance of the now (i.e. "we currently live at the most special of times > and things will never change too significantly"), distraction (i.e. "there > are other more important issues that require our attention"), fear, denial, > weak imaginations, and just plain ignorance. > > Here's a quick overview of what's coming down the pipe—developments that will > forever alter what we currently think of as normalcy and the human condition: > > Artificial superintelligence: Recursively self-improving expert systems > endowed with significantly greater-than-human intelligence, capacity, and > reach; the end of human primacy on the planet; an extinction risk and > potential existential paradigm changer. > Molecular nanotechnology: Manufacturing and materials construction at the > molecular scale; the complete re-thinking of engineering and > manufacturing; the rise of molecular assemblers (i.e. "replicators" or > "fabricators") and the end of scarcity; the advent of molecular-scale > robotics; the threat and promise of self-replication; and a serious > existential risk. > Robotics revolution: Hyper-automation and massive unemployment; the grim > potential for robotic warfare/terrorism and the rise of machine ethics; the > unpredictable impacts of the convergence of robotics with artificial > intelligence; robots that can self-replicate, swarm, assemble, create > emergent effects, self-organize, and repair; a potential existential risk. > The ongoing biotechnological revolution: Enhanced and modified humans (i.e. > cyborgs, genetically altered humans, postbiological beings), indefinite > lifespans; regenerative medicine; advanced psychopharmaceuticals; the ongoing > diminishment of corporeal importance (including possible mind transfers) and > extended personhood; transgenics and animal enhancement. > The ongoing communications revolution: Noosphere/global brain (where human > minds are interlinked with our communications technology and the internet). > The political and sociological impacts of these disruptive technologies: The > demise of privacy and the rise of the surveillance state; the further > diminishment of civil liberties and the onset of neo-authoritarianism. > Megascale engineering: Assuming humanity will survive this far: The > graduation of humanity to Kardashev I and Kardashev II civilizations through > the advent of such things as the Dyson Sphere, Jupiter Brain and Matrioshka > Brain; the onset of technogainism, remedial ecology and the reworking of > Earth's entire ecosystem (including weather control); the permanent retiring > of Darwinian processes on the planet. > So, just keep on thinking that the future is going to be more of the same. > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <[email protected]> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
