Hi Ernie:
I'm not a prude about it. I used to bet football games and dogs, etc. My
college roommate was the campus middle man bookie (I found out later he got
into a lot of trouble after college). I try not to predict anything. I
believe we Americans are endlessly addicted to trying to control the future
instead of seeing and enjoying the present. I'm interested in descriptive
rather than predictive statistics.
As to research, good existential person that I am I believe it is over-rated.
Experimenter bias and blind spots get in the way. And it seems like a
competitive masturbation society as it were. Whose research dick is the
biggest ... Boring.
Kevin
Hi Kevin,
On Nov 16, 2011, at 12:00 PM, Kevin Kervick wrote:
I don't bet but I think you may be mistaken. Check this out:
http://www.examiner.com/independent-in-manchester/underdog-paul-now-second-new-hampshire-poll
Yes, I know I may be mistaken. Otherwise I'd give you better odds. :-)
Still, one of my pet peeves (supported by research!) is that prognostication
is too easy to fake.
If you assert something strongly and expect people to believe you, you should
be willing to back it up with cash, even if it is only $1. That way, everyone
has a stake in finding out whether you are right or wrong.
Otherwise, we get into the habit of making sloppy predictions and never
learning from our mistakes.
I'd rather gamble with money than gamble with our reputation. Think about
it...
-- Ernie P.
Paul is now a solid second in NH. Cain is fading, Gingrich little traction
there. Bachman is all but out. Paul's support in Iowa is very durable. If
Romney fades nationally, as I think he might, Paul can gain even more in NH.
All of Paul's issues, crony capitalism, military spending, Fed, bank
corruption are at the forefront. Even Sarah Palin last night was open to Paul
- she has been moving in a more populist and less neoconservative direction for
quite some time. I think she may endorse Paul.
http://youtu.be/gv1Tn8iSwFg
FInally, GIngrich is now said to have received 1.6 million from Freddie
Mac. Wonder where they got the cash to pay him - taxpayers.
Kevin
Hi Kevin,
On Nov 16, 2011, at 4:56 AM, Kevin Kervick wrote:
Gingrich has too many un-conservative positions and too many lobbying
connections to ultimately gain acceptance. He is also apparently a
spendaholic, which explains why he has to take so much tarnished money and
write so many books. I think he is damaged goods.
Paul is poised to win Iowa. I think Cain is done, Perry is done
(because he is too stupid) Gingrich will not last.
http://www.examiner.com/independent-in-manchester/underdog-ron-paul-surges-iowa
If Paul can win Iowa he can finish second in New Hampshire which will
give him a lot of momentum.
I agree about the incompetence of his competitors, but I still find it
hard to believe that Ron Paul will win Iowa. I'll bet you a $25 Kiva Gift Card
he doesn't.
Kiva - Kiva Cards - Need A Gift Idea? Give a Kiva Card Today!
You ready to put your money where your mouth is?
-- Ernie P.
--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
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--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
<[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
<[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
<[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
