Yes, I think it’s safe to say that the
Newt Gingrich bubble has gotten serious. A new
poll from Magellan Strategies in
New Hampshire — Mitt Romney’s long-held
redoubt — shows Gingrich now in a
virtual dead heat with the presumed
Republican frontrunner. As NH Journal
reports, the internals look even better
for Gingrich than the top-line numbers:
The latest NH Journal poll of likely
Republican primary voters conducted by
Magellan Strategies shows Romney and
Gingrich in a statistical dead heat
for the January 10th primary. If the
election were held today, Romney would
earn 29% of the vote and Gingrich
would earn 27%. Texas Congressman Ron
Paul continues to show resolve by
earning 16%. Herman Cain gets 10%. No
other candidate is in double digits.
This is the first time any of NH
Journal’s polls have shown anyone
candidate even close to Romney. It
also shows tremendous movement for
Gingrich since NH
Journal’s October survey, in
which Gingrich was in third place, but
at only 10% versus Romney’s 41%. …
A close look at the data shows
Gingrich is actually leading Romney
among certain important subgroups of
the electorate. Among self-identified
conservative voters, Gingrich beats
Romney 34%-27%. Among self-identified
tea party voters, he leads Romney
38%-21%.
However, Romney has a wide lead over
Gingrich among Undeclared voters, who
give the former Massachusetts Governor
29% over Paul’s 19% and Gingrich’s
18%. There is also a significant
gender gap for both Romney and
Gingrich. Romney beats Gingrich
33%-22% among women while Gingrich
defeats Romney 32%-24% among men.
If this is not an outlier (Magellan is
a fairly reliable pollster), then this
is a blockbuster result. Romney doesn’t
need to win Iowa to garner the
nomination; a strong second-place finish
there could propel him quickly to the
ticket — but only if he wins New
Hampshire. A loss in this state
would be a body blow, especially if
Gingrich wins Iowa ahead of New
Hampshire and then takes aim at South
Carolina and Florida. Even a win in
Michigan and Nevada might not slow down
Gingrich, and Romney could be looking at
a second consecutive CPAC concession in
his presidential-campaign career if he
loses either or both of those.
There are, however, a couple of big
caveats. No one has really tested
Gingrich in this campaign, mainly
because no one has needed to go on the
attack against someone who hasn’t been a
front-runner. Romney will have no
choice now but to open fire on the man
who has praised him in the debates, and
probably with much more gusto than he
did against Rick Perry, who was never a
threat to Romney in New Hampshire.
Another point to keep in mind is that
Gingrich himself has only begun to
perform as a front-runner, and he comes
to this polling result with a huge
disadvantage in organization. Last
night, Gingrich welcomed back
the staff who walked out on him in
June, which might accelerate the
organizational build-up he needs to
really compete in Iowa and New
Hampshire:
For Newt Gingrich, the latest twist
on “what goes around, comes around”
has an unusual personal dimension. On
top of his surge in polls and
fund-raising, Mr. Gingrich has rehired
two of the Iowa staff members who quit
during a mass exodus from his campaign
in June. …
Thanks to his solid performances in
national debates, he has gradually
gained supporters and donors, emerging
at the top of some recent polls and
flush with enough money to hire a new
staff.
Last week he opened offices in New
Hampshire and South Carolina. And on
Thursday the campaign announced it had
rehired Craig Schoenfeld, who had been
state director in Iowa before the
departures, and Katie Koberg, who had
been deputy director. The hirings were
first reported by The Des Moines
Register.
Still, the polling results offer a bad
omen for Romney, who had been quietly
building a narrative of inevitability
for his nomination. If he becomes
vulnerable in the one state he had
thought was locked into his camp, then
the state might be open to nearly any
one of the candidates who can manage to
boost their polling. If Gingrich can
build his organization quickly and
manage to withstand the scrutiny of
being the front-runner, he could push
Romney out of the nomination by early
January … but those are mighty big ifs,
too.
