All of this is ceteris paribus, viz, assuming no Big Event / Game Changer Way it looks at the moment, the race is over on January 31 ( Florida ) IF this happens, and my view is that "if" will not happen, there will be some Big Event, then Paul ends up with his 10 % or so, the Libertarian ceiling, and no other "fringe" candidate matters. And, O yeah, Huntsman could be a spoiler for Romney, splitting the Mormon vote. Very unlikely, but should that happen, a big stink within the LDS community. Billy ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12/1/2011 12:30:39 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, [email protected] writes:
I want to see where Gingrich's 38% goes when he inevitably screws up. I'm banking on Santorum getting his 15 minutes before the end of this all, as he seems to be the most overly conservative candidate who hasn't been a darling of righties yet. It's 2:30 AM, the bar is closing up, and patrons are frantically running around trying to take anyone but the ugly girl home. They'll end up with the ugly girl. Still banking on Huntsman or Romney as the nominee, with Paul at a fairly distant second. Six western states will have had their primary/ caucus by Super Tuesday, immediately followed by the Wyoming caucus, plus four moderate Northern states and Michigan (which Romney will own). That's 43%, plus whatever Midwest spares that can be picked up. That small snowball could lead to the same avalanche that allowed McCain (a fellow Westerner) to topple Romney in 2008. http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/votes/index.html On Dec 1, 2:51 pm, [email protected] wrote: > First time any GOP candidate head-to-head vs BHO. > Gingrich 45 Obama 43 > > Some suspicion seems to be in order; how could Romney's support have > fallen by 5 to 10 pts ? > > Rasmussen (GOP 2012) > > Gingrich 38 > Romney 17 > Paul 8 > Cain 8 > Bachmann 4 > Santorum 4 > Huntsman 3 -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
