NY Times December 20, 2011, 1:44 pm Polls Find G.O.P. Electorate in Flux By _DALIA SUSSMAN_ (http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/author/dalia-sussman/) Two polls released on Tuesday further underscore the lack of commitment among many Republicans toward a particular presidential candidate, with results once again highlighting how unsettled this contest remains two weeks before Iowans cast the first votes. A _ABC News/Washington Post_ (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/gingrich-romney-go-to-a-tie-more-see-obama-as-competitive/) poll finds nearly four in 10 Republicans dissatisfied with the field of Republican candidates. On top of that, eight in 10 Republican voters who back a candidate in a _CBS News poll_ (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57345451-503544/poll-gingrich-romney-tied-at-top-of-gop-race/?tag=stack) say they could still change their mind. Thirty-seven percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in the ABC/Post poll say they are very or somewhat dissatisfied with the choice of candidates, while 59 percent are satisfied. Satisfaction was higher around this time during the 2008 presidential primary season. In an ABC/Post poll in November 2007, 69 percent of Republicans were satisfied with the field while 28 percent were dissatisfied. At the same time, 79 percent of Republican primary voters who currently back a candidate in the CBS News poll say they could still change their mind, up 7 points since November. As has been the hallmark of the race from the start, this week marks yet another shift in voter preferences, with Newt Gingrich’s national advantage all but evaporated. Mr. Gingrich is tied for the lead with Mr. Romney in the ABC/Post poll and CBS News poll alike, while Ron Paul places third in both polls. Mr. Gingrich still has the edge among very conservative voters, a key group in Republican primaries. In the ABC/Post poll, these voters prefer Mr. Gingrich over Mr. Romney by 14 percentage points. A majority of very conservative Republicans, moreover, say Mr. Romney’s health care policies when he was governor of Massachusetts are a major reason to oppose his candidacy. Mr. Gingrich draws his strength from the perception among more Republicans that he has the best experience to be president and is best qualified to be commander in chief, according to the ABC/Post poll. Mr. Romney pushes back in this poll by being seen as more able to win the general election and being more honest and trustworthy than Mr. Gingrich. Republicans were more closely divided between Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich when asked who best represents the core values of the Republican Party and who best understands their problems. Meanwhile, as Republicans continue to battle it out, President Obama’s job approval rating is approaching 50 percent in the ABC/Post poll and in a _CNN/ORC International poll_ (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/20/cnn-poll-presidents-approval-nearing-50/) . Each poll finds 49 percent of Americans approve of the way Mr. Obama is handling his job, the most since the spring. The ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted Dec. 15-18 among 1,005 adults, including 395 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points for all adults and six points for Republicans. The CBS News poll was conducted Dec. 14-18 among 992 adults, including 291 Republican primary voters. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all adults and six points for Republican primary voters.
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