Poll: Evangelicals May Double Their
Support for Obama in 2012 Election
April 4, 2012|2:40 pm
In the 2012 presidential
election, President Barack Obama could
double the amount of support he got from evangelicals in the
2008 election, according to Barna
Group, a Christian polling organization.
In 2008, Obama received the support of about 11 percent of
evangelicals, according to Barna Group. In a March 14-21
Barna Group poll of 647 likely voters, twice as many
evangelicals, 22 percent, said they were prepared to vote
for Obama.
Barna categorizes "evangelical" more narrowly than most
other polling organizations. Many polls simply include
self-identifiers – those who say, when asked, that they are
evangelical or born-again.
Under Barna's classification, an evangelical is one who
says they have made a personal commitment to Jesus Christ and
that commitment remains important to them, and shares seven
beliefs common among evangelicals, such as the existence of
Satan and that eternal salvation comes through grace, not
works. Using this measure of evangelical, Barna found that
evangelicals comprise seven percent of the population and 10
percent of likely voters.
Though Obama appears to be gaining the support of
evangelicals, the enthusiasm levels of those supporters remain
low. Only three to five percent of evangelicals said they
would "definitely" vote for him, while 53-58 percent of
evangelicals said they would "definitely" support the
Republican challenger.
Among religious skeptics, defined as atheists and
agnostics, Obama receives strong support. Against Mitt
Romney, the likely Republican nominee, Obama would likely
receive the support of about 70 percent of this group if the
election were held now. Religious skeptics would also
comprise 11 percent of the
electorate, about the same as evangelicals.
Barna Group cautions, though, about reading too much into
the results. The election is not until November and the
Republican nominee has not been chosen.
"Without the Republican candidate having been selected yet,
and with three months of the major party candidates bashing
each other after the upcoming party conventions, much could
change before November 6. However, a few early indicators
were flagged as factors to watch during the coming months,"
Barna Group writes.
The poll's margin of error is plus or minus four percentage
points.
Christian author George Barna founded Barna Group and is
currently working with the Newt Gingrich campaign. He sold
his majority share of Barna Group in 2009 and is no longer
involved in its operation.
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